I'm a firm believer in evaluating trades the moment they happen. But we should check in on the results after they've played out, too. One year removed from a trade, how does it look in retrospect? Let's look back at the 2025 NFL trade deadline one year later. We're including blockbuster trades for Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner, along with other deals that sent players like Jaelan Phillips, Jakobi Meyers and Rashid Shaheed to playoff teams.
In this exercise I'm grading trades like I always do, taking into account player quality, draft pick compensation, contract details and team time horizons. But in this case we have results of a year of play, too. These grades are descriptive of the past 12 months -- meaning they reflect the results of how they panned out -- along with my expectations for the remaining effects of the trade going forward.
How should we feel about the Williams deal now? How about the Odafe Oweh for Alohi Gilman swap? Or the Shaheed deal, especially considering the Seahawks' Super Bowl LX victory? Before this year's trade deadline hits on Nov. 10, let's finish up our evaluation of the last one.
More trade deadline content:
Trade tracker | Trade grades
Jump to a 2025 regrade:
Gardner/Mitchell | Williams/Smith
Meyers | Oweh/Gilman | Phillips
Shaheed | White | Campbell/Newsome
CB Gardner to the Colts for WR Mitchell, more
Colts got: CB Sauce Gardner
Jets got: WR Adonai Mitchell, 2026 first-round pick, 2027 first-round pick
Original grade for Colts: D
New grade for Colts: F
Original grade for Jets: A
New grade for Jets: A
I had a sliver of empathy for the Colts when this trade was made given the situation they were in. At that moment, ESPN's Football Power Index gave Indianapolis an 11% chance to win the Super Bowl. Here's what I wrote, "Not only is this their best chance in years, but it's probably the best chance they will have for the next few years."
I feel pretty good about that assessment 12 months later. But that didn't even come close to negating the obvious, instant takeaway from this trade when it was made: It was an ill-advised and reckless overpay. It's fine for NFL teams to push their chips in while contending. But there must be a price limit to every transaction, and the Colts blew past what was reasonable. It looks even worse now, because everything that's happened since has been a disaster for Indianapolis.
Gardner suffered a calf injury in his third game with the Colts, which cost him all but one game the rest of the season. One week later, quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. The Colts won only one game after trading for Gardner, plummeting from 7-2 to 8-9 and finishing the season out of the playoffs.
With Gardner and Jones both healthy in 2026, there was still a chance for the trade to have some value. But neither has played great. Jones ranks 29th out of 30 qualifying quarterbacks in QBR while Gardner has allowed 1.1 yards per coverage snap this season. That's average for an outside cornerback, along with plus-8.5 EPA allowed on targets (worse than average). While I believe some of Gardner's numbers are a result of contested catch variance and he's playing better than his 1.1 number suggests, the results have not been great.
Ultimately, the Colts lost their first-round pick last year (which the Jets turned into tight end Kenyon Sadiq) and now don't have a first-round pick in 2027 -- right as they begin a rebuild. It's extremely unideal, especially since the Colts would have the No. 4 overall pick if the season ended today. That pick could go even higher, as Indianapolis fired GM Chris Ballard on Oct. 19 and has already traded multiple veteran players preceding this year's deadline.
One part of this trade I haven't mentioned thus far is Mitchell, but he shouldn't be overlooked. This deal would have been an A for the Jets swithout him, but he's no throw-in. Mitchell had always shown an ability to get open, but that hadn't resulted in serious production. But that might be in progress this season. Though he missed time with a finger injury, Mitchell has put up an extraordinary 2.6 yards per route run when he has been on the field. The Jets look like they also got a starting-caliber wide receiver out of this trade, making it even better.
For the Jets, this move in conjunction with the Quinnen Williams trade has given New York the draft capital it needs to put together a talented young core and have a shot at a top quarterback in the 2027 draft. It's been a long, painful road for the Jets, but their willingness to deal their stars at last year's deadline has set them up for future success.
DT Williams to the Cowboys for DT Smith, more
Cowboys got: DT Quinnen Williams
Jets got: DT Mazi Smith, 2026 second-round pick, 2027 first-round pick
Original grade for Cowboys: F
New grade for Cowboys: D
Original grade for Jets: A
New grade for Jets: A
At the time of this trade, I was completely dumbfounded at Dallas' decision to make this deal. Prior to dealing for Williams, FPI gave the Cowboys a 7% chance to reach the playoffs, which is precisely when a team should not deal away future first-round picks for veterans.
Part of my criticism was that Williams could play well in 2025 and that it wouldn't matter because of the hole the Cowboys had dug themselves. That's precisely what happened -- from Week 11 on, Williams ranked second and ninth in pass rush win rate and run stop win rate at defensive tackle, respectively. Those are incredible rankings! But they were not enough to get Dallas to the playoffs, as the Cowboys finished the season 7-9-1.
This season, Williams still ranks in the top 10 in run stop win rate for interior defenders but his pass rush win rate has fallen to average (though he does have five sacks). And the Dallas defense? It's still bad, ranking 31st in EPA allowed per play.
So my belief then is my belief now: Williams is a great player, but the Cowboys gave up far too much for him, especially considering where they were in the standings at the time of the deal. At the time of the original grade, I'm not sure we knew that the Cowboys were surrendering the better of their two 2027 first-round picks -- theirs and the Packers' -- which only furthered the downside for the Cowboys (and upside for the Jets).
There were ripple effects, too. With a surplus at defensive tackle, the team traded Osa Odighizuwa (for not enough!) to the 49ers in March, keeping Williams and Kenny Clark -- who came over in the Micah Parsons trade. The Cowboys also extended Williams with a lucrative three-year, $105.9 million extension in August.
As for the Jets? This was a home run then and a home run now. The team wasn't going anywhere in 2025, and it was able to gain a ton of surplus value via draft capital, which is helping build a group of talented young players. The Jets were the biggest winners of last year's trade deadline, and it set them up for success in 2027 and beyond. It doesn't even matter that Smith didn't stick in New York.
WR Meyers to the Jaguars
Jaguars got: WR Jakobi Meyers
Raiders got: 2026 fourth-round pick, 2026 sixth-round pick
Original grade for Jaguars: C+
New grade for Jaguars: B+
Original grade for Raiders: A-
New grade for Raiders: B+
This trade was made to help replace lost wide receiver production due to poor performance from Brian Thomas Jr. and a season-ending injury to Travis Hunter. Which is funny, because it turns out the perfect person to step up was already on Jacksonville's roster. Parker Washington emerged last season and has elevated his play even further in 2026 to where he is now the Jaguars' clear No. 1 wide receiver.
Even though Washington has produced a superb 2.6 yards per route run since the trade for Meyers, Meyers has been a helpful player in his own right, recording 1.6 yards per route run since arriving in Jacksonville. And Trevor Lawrence has also ranked seventh in QBR in the NFL in that span. That is no doubt a confluence of many factors, but having a reliable No. 2 receiver like Meyers is one of them.
At the time of the deal, the Jaguars had a 55% chance to reach the playoffs. The offense's strong performance fueled them to wins in eight of their final nine games to reach the postseason. Though they ultimately lost 27-24 to the Bills in the wild-card round, they had a legitimate shot to make the Super Bowl in a wide-open AFC.
In retrospect, the fourth- and sixth-round picks they surrendered for Meyers were worth it for the Jaguars considering the team's uptick in play. I had considered him a rental prior to the trade, but Meyers signed an extension before the end of the season that was worth $20 million per year. So he isn't a value going forward but is important to a 2026 Jaguars team that's among the best in the AFC.
While the Raiders could use another capable receiver right now, I think this move remains perfectly reasonable for them. They were (and still are) in a different part of their team build, and Meyers was on an expiring contract! It made sense -- then and now -- for Las Vegas to turn him into draft capital that can be useful for them going forward.
Even in hindsight, this deal was a win-win.
Edge Oweh to the Chargers for S Gilman, more
Chargers got: Edge Odafe Oweh, 2027 seventh-round pick
Ravens got: S Alohi Gilman, 2026 fifth-round pick
Original Chargers grade: B
New Chargers grade: A
Original Ravens grade: B
New Ravens grade: B
This was an interesting player-for-player swap between teams hoping to contend. Let's start with the Oweh part. At the time of the deal, Khalil Mack was injured and the Chargers were looking for pass-rushing help. I wrote that despite zero sacks, Oweh was an upgrade over Tuli Tuipulotu and Bud Dupree because of his underlying metrics.
Oweh came to Los Angeles with a 75th percentile pass rush win rate and a 60th percentile pressure rate, and this deal is strong evidence of why those are valuable metrics for projecting future sack production. Oweh recorded 7.5 sacks after the trade in the regular season and three more in the Chargers' playoff loss to the Patriots.
Oweh was everything the Chargers could have hoped for last season. He walked in free agency and signed a $24 million per year deal with the Commanders, but that also should work out for the Chargers. He is expected to net them a third-round compensatory pick in next year's draft, per projections from OverTheCap.com.
Ironically, the Ravens entered last offseason needing an edge rusher, so I thought they might bring back Oweh in free agency. Instead, the Ravens signed Trey Hendrickson after their failed trade for Maxx Crosby.
As for Gilman, he was virtually an every-snap player for the Ravens and allowed them to change the structure of their secondary, enabling Kyle Hamilton to align at nickel or linebacker. The Ravens' pass defense got dramatically better after the deal: It ranked 29th in EPA allowed per opponent dropback before the trade and 13th after -- substantial improvement.
It's tough to identify how much of that was Gilman, how much it was being able to move Hamilton closer to the line of scrimmage (this seems most important) and how much was noise or other unrelated factors. But it seems as if it worked.
Gilman left in free agency for an $8 million per year deal with the Chiefs. His projected sixth-round compensatory pick is likely to be canceled out by a signing (though the Ravens are also projected to max out with four compensatory picks anyway), per OverTheCap.com.
So who got the better of the deal? This largely worked out for both teams. But the difference in the contracts these two players received in free agency is larger than the difference in the value of the draft picks exchanged, making it a pretty clear win for the Chargers.
Edge Phillips to the Eagles
Eagles got: Edge Jaelan Phillips
Dolphins got: 2026 third-round pick
Original Eagles grade: A
New Eagles grade: A
Original Dolphins grade: C+
New Dolphins grade: C+
I feel roughly the same about this trade now as I did 12 months ago.
At the time, the Eagles needed edge help -- Nolan Smith Jr. was on injured reserve and Za'Darius Smith had retired -- so Phillips looked like a perfect, if temporary, solution. Phillips had returned from an ACL injury sustained the season before but played at a similar level he did pre-injury. He was reliable in Philadelphia. Even though he recorded only two sacks as an Eagle, Phillips had a 94th percentile pressure rate (though only an 84th percentile pass rush win rate), including the postseason.
Ultimately, Phillips was a temporary fix -- he signed a $30 million per year deal with the Panthers in free agency -- but that is part of the reason why I thought this was such a good trade. The Eagles are expected to net a third-round compensatory pick for Phillips in 2027, per OverTheCap.com, meaning they probably will have gotten a half season of a high-end pass rusher for the simple price of moving a third-round pick back one year. That is especially true because the Dolphins converted most of Phillips' remaining money into a signing bonus before the trade, so the Eagles had to pay only $1.5 million.
As for the Dolphins, the deal made sense considering they were 2-7 and he was a pending free agent. But because of the compensatory-pick possibility, I wonder now what I wondered then: How were the Dolphins not able to get more for Phillips?
WR Shaheed to the Seahawks
Seahawks got: WR Rashid Shaheed
Saints got: 2026 fourth-round pick, 2026 fifth-round pick
Original Seahawks grade: A-
New Seahawks grade: B
Original Saints grade: B+
New Saints grade: B+
This is a strangely tricky deal to regrade. On one hand, the Seahawks won the Super Bowl, so virtually any move they made to get there feels like a win. And though Shaheed didn't contribute much in the receiving game, we can point to some critical plays he made as a returner that helped the Seahawks to the championship.
Shaheed returned a kick for a touchdown in Seattle's Week 14 win over Atlanta, then returned a punt for a touchdown as part of the team's fourth-quarter comeback in a critical 38-37 overtime win over the Rams that eventually was the difference in Seattle earning home-field advantage. Then he opened Seattle's postseason with a touchdown on the opening kickoff against the 49ers in the divisional round. Those three plays alone are very valuable.
That said, Shaheed managed only 1.0 yards per route run after joining the Seahawks, postseason included. Perhaps there's a mild argument that his vertical threat opened intermediate routes for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but it's hard to argue that Shaheed's acquisition was a success from a receiving standpoint.
The Seahawks re-signed him to a $17 million per year deal after the season. At the time, it seemed feasible that he could play a larger role in the offense with a full offseason. But so far that has not panned out. Shaheed has only 1.1 yards per route run this season. That re-signing and ensuing lack of receiving production bumps this grade down a bit. Nothing has really changed from a Saints perspective regarding this deal, as they did well to get two Day 3 picks for a player on an expiring contract.
Edge White to the 49ers
49ers got: Edge Keion White, 2026 seventh-round pick
Patriots got: 2026 sixth-round pick
Original 49ers grade: A-
New 49ers grade: A-
Original Patriots grade: C-
New Patriots grade: C-
At the time of this deal, the 49ers were dealing with several defensive line injuries, most notably the loss of Nick Bosa to a season-ending ACL injury. White had fallen deep enough down the Patriots depth chart that he was a healthy scratch in the week before the deal, but San Francisco saw a player who could be useful given their needs. The 49ers were right.
White, who has inside-outside flexibility, played 56% of defensive snaps after joining the 49ers last season. He delivered very little production on the edge from a pass-rushing standpoint (bottom 15th percentile in both pressure rate and pass rush win rate), but as an interior rusher he delivered an 86th percentile pressure rate and 48th percentile pass rush win rate while recording 1.5 sacks.
One of the reasons why this deal was favorable for San Francisco is that White was under an affordable contract in 2026. White has played 64% of the 49ers' defensive snaps this season. He has 3.5 sacks with 45th and 28th pass rush win rate and pressure rate percentiles at edge, respectively. He has excelled as an interior rusher again, with rates in the 88th percentile and 71st percentile.
White is hardly a star, but he is a useful player on the edge and even better on the inside. That's a win for the 49ers, especially given how little they had to part with to acquire him. And I truly feel the Patriots could use a player like White right now.
CB Campbell to the Browns for CB Newsome, more
Browns got: CB Tyson Campbell, 2026 seventh-round pick
Jaguars got: CB Greg Newsome II, 2026 sixth-round pick
Original Browns grade: B
New Browns grade: B+
Original Jaguars grade: B-
New Jaguars grade: C+
This was a fascinating trade in which the Browns and Jaguars swapped cornerbacks with different contract situations. The Browns dealt Newsome, who was playing on his fifth-year option, to the Jaguars for Campbell, who signed an extension in 2024.
In short, the Browns exchanged a player on an expiring contract and made a longer-term bet on Campbell. If the latter could rebound from his tough 2025 start, then they would get a starting cornerback at a bit of a value. But if he didn't play well, the Browns would have a tough decision to cut him at a net loss (relative to the price they would have paid Newsome) or take on a rolling guarantee for some of Campbell's 2027 money.
Both corners played better after the trade. Each gave up 1.2 yards per coverage snap -- a shade worse than average -- and each registered a slightly negative EPA allowed on targets (negative is good for cornerbacks). Unpublished player-tracking data work I have suggests that Campbell played particularly well.
His solid play has continued this season, as he has given up 1.1 yards per coverage snap. As far as Cleveland is concerned, Campbell is now on a three-year, $45 million contract with a team option for a fourth year for $16.5 million. That's a nice contract for a starter and probably cheaper than Campbell would command if he were a free agent right now.
Newsome is also playing very well according to my cornerback tracking metrics, giving up 1.0 yards per coverage snap and spending 26% of his snaps in tight coverage, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, the third best in the NFL. But he's doing this for the Giants, who signed him to a one-year, $8 million contract in the offseason and extended him Tuesday for three more years.
So, even though the Jaguars are on track to a sixth-round compensatory pick for him per OverTheCap.com, I give the edge to the Browns. The fact that Jacksonville cornerback Montaric Brown has given up 2.8 yards per coverage snap in five games played -- by far the most of any corner who has played 90 coverage snaps -- further tips the scales. Campbell or Newsome would be a clear upgrade.