<
>

Projected NFL draft order for 2022: Who has the No. 1 pick?

play
Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux talks being CFB's most dominant defender (4:29)

Trevor Matich breaks down what makes Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux so special, and then chats with the Heisman hopeful about the upcoming season. (4:29)

The Jacksonville Jaguars now have the best chance to pick No. 1 overall in the 2022 NFL draft, according to the updated 1-32 draft order projections from the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). Urban Meyer's Jags were blown out in Week 1 at the Houston Texans, which was the preseason favorite to get the first pick. The Texans are now projected to pick No. 5 overall.

There have already been five trades involving first-round picks in the 2022 draft, with the New York Giants projected to have two top-10 picks. The Philadelphia Eagles are projected to have three first-round picks, thanks to deals with the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts, the latter of which involves a conditional pick based on quarterback Carson Wentz's playing time, which is likely to happen after Wentz recovered from his preseason foot injury and played in Week 1.

Each week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games, and the order is based on each team's average draft position in the simulations. "Stats to know" are courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information.

Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2022 NFL draft (updated Sept. 15):

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)

Average draft position: 6.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 17.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 57%


2. Atlanta Falcons (0-1)

Average draft position: 6.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 13.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 51.2%


3. Detroit Lions (0-1)

Average draft position: 7.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 14.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 53.4%


4. New York Jets (0-1)

Average draft position: 7.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 12.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 47.9%


5. New York Giants (0-1)

Average draft position: 8.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 9.0%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 41.5%


6. Houston Texans (1-0)

Average draft position: 9.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 40.1%


7. Washington Football Team (0-1)

Average draft position: 10.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 31.9%


8. New York Giants (via 0-1 CHI)

Average draft position: 10.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 30.7%


9. Cincinnati Bengals (1-0)

Average draft position: 13.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 15.2%


10. Tennessee Titans (0-1)

Average draft position: 13.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 20.2%


11. Carolina Panthers (1-0)

Average draft position: 14.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 11.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 32%


12. Minnesota Vikings (0-1)

Average draft position: 14.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 16.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 38.4%


13. Las Vegas Raiders (1-0)

Average draft position: 14.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 9.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 29.1%


14. Green Bay Packers (0-1)

Average draft position: 15.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 13.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 33.4%


15. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

Average draft position: 16.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 9.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 28.2%


16. Philadelphia Eagles (via 0-1 IND)

Average draft position: 16.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 13%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 31.1%


17. New England Patriots (0-1)

Average draft position: 17.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 6.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 21.5%


18. Los Angeles Chargers (1-0)

Average draft position: 18.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 4.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 15.7%


19. Baltimore Ravens (0-1)

Average draft position: 19.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 14.2%


20. Dallas Cowboys (0-1)

Average draft position: 19.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 5.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 18.6%


21. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)

Average draft position: 19.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 12.9%


22. Denver Broncos (1-0)

Average draft position: 20.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 10.4%


23. Arizona Cardinals (1-0)

Average draft position: 20.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 9.8%


24. Buffalo Bills (0-1)

Average draft position: 21.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 10.1%


25. Cleveland Browns (0-1)

Average draft position: 21.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 9.3%


26. Philadelphia Eagles (via 1-0 MIA)

Average draft position: 21.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 9.5%


27. Miami Dolphins (via 1-0 SF)

Average draft position: 21.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 7.5%


28. New York Jets (via 1-0 SEA)

Average draft position: 22.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.8%


29. Detroit Lions (via 1-0 LAR)

Average draft position: 23.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.5%


30. New Orleans Saints (1-0)

Average draft position: 24.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.8%


31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0)

Average draft position: 24.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.1%


32. Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)

Average draft position: 27.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.8%