topsecretdailynotesfile

Aug 17, 2026, 05:26 PM

TODAY

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. W%: The individual starting pitcher's win probability using ESPN projections. IP: Projected innings pitched. H+BB: Projected hits plus walks allowed. ER: Projected earned runs allowed. K: Projected strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
16.2	Cristopher Sanchez	L	MIA	99.8%	54%	6.4	6.7	2.0	7.1
14.5	Nolan McLean	R	SD	93.3%	37%	5.9	6.2	1.5	6.0
11.0	Shota Imanaga	L	CWS	85.4%	32%	5.6	6.5	2.5	5.6
10.7	Framber Valdez	L	@PIT	71.2%	44%	5.9	7.9	2.7	5.7
10.5	Brandon Young	R	@TB	19.5%	34%	5.6	7.0	2.2	5.0
9.3	Luis Castillo	R	@CHC	50.3%	29%	5.4	6.8	2.5	5.1
9.1	Shane McClanahan	L	BAL	47.8%	14%	4.3	5.0	1.5	4.4
9.0	Walker Buehler	R	@NYM	5.9%	25%	5.1	6.7	2.1	4.5
8.8	Michael Wacha	R	ATH	62.5%	45%	6.4	8.5	3.5	5.0
8.6	Andre Pallante	R	@CIN, Gm. 2	25.6%	35%	5.5	7.4	2.8	5.0
8.2	Kent Emanuel	L	STL, Gm. 1	0.0%	24%	5.1	6.8	2.8	5.1
8.1	Quinn Mathews	L	@CIN, Gm. 1	1.6%	16%	4.5	6.0	2.0	4.8
7.6	Rhett Lowder	R	STL, Gm. 2	3.1%	27%	5.2	7.2	2.9	4.9
7.5	Bailey Ober	R	ATL	15.3%	31%	5.2	6.8	2.9	4.3
6.9	Janson Junk	R	@PHI	1.7%	13%	4.6	5.8	2.2	3.7
6.7	Martin Perez	L	@MIN	16.1%	14%	4.3	5.7	1.9	3.6
5.7	Brayan Bello*	R	ARI	5.4%	28%	5.1	7.8	3.2	4.3
5.6	Mitch Bratt	L	@BOS	2.7%	19%	4.7	6.5	3.0	4.2
5.6	Blake Snell	L	@COL	83.1%	18%	4.2	6.2	3.1	5.5
4.5	Mason Barnett	R	@KC	0.2%	17%	4.5	6.7	2.8	3.6
4.5	Carmen Mlodzinski	R	DET	3.3%	7%	4.1	6.2	2.4	3.5
-2.5	Tomoyuki Sugano	R	LAD	3.7%	15%	4.8	8.2	6.0	3.7

TOMORROW

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
13.2	Zack Wheeler	R	MIA	98.4%	38%	5.5	5.9	2.0	6.4
11.6	Robbie Ray	L	@NYM	66.1%	37%	5.5	6.7	1.8	5.3
10.9	Kevin Gausman	R	CWS	84.7%	36%	5.7	7.0	2.4	5.5
10.4	Foster Griffin	L	SF	76.8%	31%	5.3	6.3	2.4	5.3
10.3	Nick Martinez	R	TOR	69.3%	33%	5.7	6.7	2.2	4.3
10.1	Jose Soriano	R	@TB	82.1%	29%	5.3	7.0	2.0	5.1
9.8	Braxton Ashcraft	R	DET	86.4%	27%	5.4	6.7	2.4	5.2
9.6	Zac Thornton	L	SD	11.5%	20%	5.0	5.7	1.7	4.0
9.3	Keider Montero	R	@PIT	17.4%	34%	5.6	7.0	2.5	4.3
9.0	Shane Baz	R	NYY	29.1%	29%	5.5	7.2	2.7	5.3
9.0	Kyle Leahy	R	@CIN	23.2%	27%	5.1	6.4	2.6	5.4
8.8	Bryce Miller	R	@MIL	46.8%	27%	5.2	6.5	2.5	4.9
8.6	Andrew Abbott	L	STL	38.5%	32%	5.5	7.4	2.9	5.1
8.5	Tyler Mahle	R	@MIN	10.8%	30%	5.3	7.2	2.6	4.9
8.4	Will Warren	R	@BAL	37.4%	29%	5.2	7.0	2.8	5.4
8.1	Kyle Harrison	L	SEA	70.4%	20%	4.6	6.0	2.3	4.9
8.1	Cristian Javier	R	LAA	1.5%	25%	4.7	6.4	2.1	4.4
7.6	George Klassen	R	@HOU	0.3%	16%	4.8	6.6	2.2	4.5
7.0	Jackson Kent	L	@TEX	0.5%	20%	4.7	6.3	2.6	4.4
6.9	Zebby Matthews	R	ATL	3.1%	26%	5.2	7.4	3.1	5.0
6.6	Carson Whisenhunt	L	@CLE	0.5%	19%	4.6	6.7	2.3	4.2
6.5	Jack Perkins	R	@KC	1.0%	28%	4.9	7.1	2.9	4.7
6.4	Merrill Kelly	R	@BOS	20.3%	28%	5.2	7.3	3.2	4.7
6.4	Erick Fedde	R	@CHC	0.9%	23%	4.9	6.9	2.7	4.0
6.2	Cal Quantrill	R	WSH	0.8%	27%	4.9	6.8	2.9	4.1
6.2	Ranger Suarez	L	ARI	72.9%	21%	4.5	6.5	2.7	4.5
5.4	Tyler Phillips	R	@PHI	2.0%	10%	4.4	6.2	2.5	3.7
4.0	Daniel Lynch IV	L	ATH	0.6%	4%	3.0	4.2	1.7	2.8
1.4	Eric Lauer	L	@COL	4.4%	28%	5.2	8.0	5.5	4.9
-2.4	Ryan Feltner	R	LAD	0.4%	19%	4.5	8.5	5.6	3.8

PITCHER	OPP.	MONEY LINE	PROJ. WIN%	VALUE %	RUN LINE	OV	VALUE %	GAME TOTAL	O/U	xRUNS	VALUE %
Max Fried	@SF	-126	55.3	+0.71	-1.0	+106	+0.71	7.0	O -108	7.56	-0.01
Logan Webb	NYY	+104	44.7	-10.55	+1.0	-138	-10.55	7.0	U -112	7.56	-8.99

PITCHER	OPP.	MONEY LINE	PROJ. WIN%	VALUE %	RUN LINE	OV	VALUE %	GAME TOTAL	O/U	xRUNS	VALUE %
Max Fried	@ SF	-126	55.2	0.66	-1.0	+106	0.66	7.0	O -105	7.57	1.64
Logan Webb	vs. NYY	+104	44.8	-10.48	+1.0	-138	-10.48		U -115		-10.37