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Super Rugby AU R2 & Aotearoa R1: Line-ups, odds, analysis

The southern hemisphere rugby season goes up a gear this weekend with the return of Super Rugby Aotearoa in New Zealand.

Just like Super Rugby AU, which kicked off with wins for the Reds and Brumbies last weekend, Super Rugby Aotearoa is also trialing new laws, most notably an adoption of the goal-line dropout variation and also a captain's challenge, which has already drawn criticism following preseason trials.

The Crusaders again start favourites in New Zealand, but the Blues have assembled a strong squad to challenge the defending champions, albeit one without the presence of Beauden Barrett who is away in Japan on a playing sabbatical.

Read on for the latest team lists, odds and analysis of the two fixtures from each competition below.

SUPER RUGBY AU

Friday, February 26

Queensland Reds vs. Melbourne Rebels, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, 7.45pm [AEDT]

Reds: Jock Campbell, Jordan Petaia, Hunter Paisami, Hamish Stewart, Filipo Daugunu, James O'Connor, Tate McDermott; Harry Wilson, Fraser McReight, Angus Scott-Young, Angus Blyth, Seru Uru, Taniela Tupou, Alex Mafi, Dane Zander. .

Replacements: Josh Nasser, Harry Hoopert, Feao Fotuaika, Ryan Smith, Sam Wallis, Moses Sorovi, Bryce Hegarty, Suliasi Vunivalu.

Rebels: Tom Pincus, Lachie Anderson, Stace Ili, Reece Hodge, Marika Koroibete, Matt To'omua (c), Joe Powell, Michael Wells, Richard Hardwick, Brad Wilkin, Trevor Hosea, Steve Cummins, Vaauli Faamausili, Jordan Uelese, Cabous Eloff.

Replacements: Ed Craig, Isaac Aedo Kailea, Rhys Van Nek, Rob Leota, Josh Kemeny, James Tuttle, Glen Vaihu, Frank Lomani.

Odds [tab.com.au]: Reds $1.25 [-11.5 $1.85], Rebels $4 [+11.5 $1.95]

Verdict: This looks like a tough ask for the Rebels first-up, given they are without several Wallabies and again had to skip tow from Melbourne following the announcement of Victoria's third lockdown a fortnight ago. Missing from Friday night's team are Dane Haylett-Petty and Isi Naisarani, while there appears to have been no direction handed down from Wallabies coach Dave Rennie about Reece Hodge, who starts at inside-centre rather than fly-half. Things could scarcely be better for the Reds, though, with no injuries to report from last week and Taniela Tupou restored to the starting line-up in the only change to the team that belted the Waratahs 45-7. Look for NRL convert Suliasi Vunivalu to make his entry off the bench early in the second-half in a substitution that could put him opposite Marika Koroibete. Short of upsetting the Reds at set-piece, particularly their wobbly lineout, the Rebels are up against it here. Reds by 17.

Saturday, February 27

Brumbies vs. NSW Waratahs, GIO Stadium, Canberra, 7:45pm [AEDT]

Brumbies: Tom Banks, Andy Murihead, Len Ikitau, Irae Simone, Mack Hansen, Noah Lolesio, Nic White; Pete Samu, Jahrome Brown, Rob Valetini, Cadeyrn Neville, Darcy Swain, Allan Alaalatoa (c), Connal McInerney, James Slipper.

Replacements: Lachlan Lonergan, Harry Lloyd, Tom Ross, Nick Frost, Tom Cusack, Ryan Lonergan, Reesjan Pasitoa, Issak Fines-Leleiwasa.

Waratahs: Jack Maddocks, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Alex Newsome (c), Tepai Moeroa, James Ramm, Will Harrison, Jack Grant, Jack Dempsey, Carlo Tizzano, Lachie Swinton, Jack Whetton, Sam Caird, Harry Johnson-Holmes, Tom Horton, Angus Bell.

Replacements: David Porecki, Tetera Faulkner, Sio Tatola, Jeremy Williams, Hugh Sinclair, Henry Robertson, Tane Edmed, Triston Reilly.

Odds [tab.com.au]: Force $2.80 [+5.5 $1.90], Brumbies $1.44 [-5.5 1.90]

Verdict: One thought the Waratahs' season could not get any uglier following last week's 38-point hammering, only for the worst fears over the injuries to skipper Jake Gordon and centre Joey Walton to be confirmed. The duo will miss substantive chunks of Super Rugby AU, with Walton perhaps not to be seen again at all. That has placed further strain on the already stretched Waratahs playing resources, but there is some good news with the return of Lachie Swinton. The one-Test back-rower adds genuine quality to what is the Waratahs' only real area of strength, particularly after the performance of youngster Carlo Tizzano in Brisbane. But they confront a Brumbies team that looked like it was in mid-season, rather than Round 1, such was its defensive organisation and attacking execution. The Brumbies will also take confidence from their two most recent games against the Waratahs in Canberra where they have triumphed by 27 and 33 points respectively. Brumbies by 25.

BYE: Force

SUPER RUGBY AOTEAROA

Friday, February 26

Highlanders vs. Crusaders, Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin, 5.05pm [AEDT]

Highlanders: Solomon Alaimalo, Connor Garden-Bachop, Ngantungane Punivai, Sio Tomkinson, Jona Nareki, Mitch Hunt, Aaron Smith (co captain), Marino Mikaele-Tu'u, Billy Harmon, Shannon Frizell, Jack Regan, Josh Dickson, Siate Tokolahi, Ash Dixon (co-captain), Daniel Lienert-Brown.

Replacements: Liam Coltman, Josh Hohneck, Jeff Thwaites, Bryn Evans, Folau Fakatava, Josh Ioane, Hugh Renton.

Crusaders: Joe Moody, Will Jordan, Sevu Reece, Jack Goodhue, Dallas McLeod, Leicester Fainga'anuku, Richie Mo'unga, Bryn Hall; Cullen Grace, Tom Christie, Ethan Blackadder, Sam Whitelock, Scott Barrett [C], Michael Alaalatoa, Codie Taylor (VC), Joe Moody.

Replacements: Brodie McAlister, George Bower, Fletcher Newell, Quinten Strange, Sione Havili Talitui, Mitchell Drummond, Fergus Burke, Chay Fihaki

Odds: [tab.com.au] Highlanders $3 [+6.5 $1.90], Crusaders $1.40 [-6.5 $1.90]

Verdict: Is there a better way to start Super Rugby Aotearoa 2.0 than with the southern derby, under the roof in Dunedin, with the uni students going wild in the The Zoo? No. Well played, NZ Rugby. Friday night's tournament opener promises to be an up-tempo match where both teams look to use the width of the field and test the early-season engines of their opposites. The Crusaders retain All Blacks quality across the park, even without the injured Braydon Ennor, but the Highlanders have made a habit of getting the best out of a squad that lacks the star power of their New Zealand rivals. In the corresponding game last year, the Highlanders were able to hang with the Crusaders until the 60th mark, before Will Jordan and co. went to work inside the final quarter. Look for a similar script here, even if the Crusaders bench is perhaps not as stacked as it has been in seasons' past. Crusaders by 8.

Saturday, February 27

Hurricanes vs. Blues, Sky Stadium, Wellington, 5.05pm [AEDT]

Hurricanes: Jordie Barrett, Wes Goosen, Billy Proctor, Ngani Laumape, Julian Savea, Jackson Garden-Bachop, Jonathan Taumateine, Devan Flanders, Ardie Savea, Vaea Fifita, Scott Scrafton, James Blackwell, Tyrel Lomax, Asafo Aumua, Fraser Armstrong.

Replacements: Ricky Riccitelli, Xavier Numia, Alex Fidow, Reed Prinsep, Du'Plessis Kirifi, Luke Campbell, Peter Umaga-Jensen, Salesi Rayasi.

Blues: Stephen Perofeta, Mark Telea, Rieko Ioane, Harry Plummer, Caleb Clarke, Otere Black, Sam Nock; Hoskins Sotutu, Dalton Papalii, Akira Ioane, Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, Patrick Tuipulotu (c), Nepo Laulala, Kurt Eklund, James Lay.

Replacements: Luteru Tolai, Karl Tu'inukuafe, Ofa Tuungafasi, Josh Goodhue, Tom Robinson, Adrian Chiat, Jonathan Ruru, Taniela Tele'a.

Odds: [tab.com.au] Hurricanes $1.77 [+1.5, $1.90] Blues $1.90 [+1.5 $2.05]

Verdict: The opening round of Super Rugby Aotearoa has thrown up another mouth-watering clash with this match in Wellington. Once the parade ground for TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett, neither player will grace Sky Stadium this weekend given their moves to the Japanese Top League. But the game isn't exactly short on star power either, given the Ioane brothers, Savea brothers, Caleb Clarke and others. The Hurricanes were too good at home last season and this match looks like it will go the same way. Look for Ngani Laumape to take the Route 1 approach straight over the top of Harry Plummer and Clarke to take a similar ploy against Wes Goosen. Expect this one to go down to the final 10 minutes with the hosts perhaps holding the edge in quality off the bench. Hurricanes by 2.

Bye: Chiefs