Best MLB pitchers to bet on | Worst
With the second half of the MLB season beginning Friday, it's a perfect time to look at which pitchers under- or overperformed in the first half. From Vegas' perspective, this doesn't necessarily mean the pitchers with the best first-half records, but which pitchers have been most profitable for bettors.
With the top 10 most profitable starting pitchers each representing a different team, variety becomes the name of the game. These 10 pitchers started a combined 178 games with their respective teams, winning 72.4 percent of those starts for a record of 129-49. And three of the 10 pitchers were able to break the $1,000 profit barrier (making $100 per wager).
Let's now take a look at the 10 and find out whether you should bet or fade them in the second half.
1. Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks
Money profited: $1,445
Team W-L: 17-2
Average betting line as favorite: minus-136.5 (16 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-131 (three starts)
If you take a look at the most profitable pitchers in baseball from the past three full regular seasons, you notice that all of them had profitable first and second halves, but one always at least doubled the other in terms of net profits:
Gio Gonzalez (2012)
First half: $1,068
Second half: $408
Full season: $1,476
Ian Kennedy (2011)
First half: $499
Second half: $1,285
Full season: $1,784
Kris Medlen (2010)
First half: $970
Second half: $321
Full season: $1,291
For Corbin to continue to lead baseball in profits, he is going to need the Diamondbacks to improve their run support from 4.63 runs per start (tied for 27th in baseball). The issue for Corbin will end up being the price he is tagged with in his upcoming home starts, because if he ends up losing any of those games, it will be hard to think the line would be any smaller than minus-150 against the Cubs, Padres or Mets.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Cubs (H), Padres (H), Red Sox (R), Mets (H) (*H= Home; R=Road)
Fade or bet: Bet early, fade late