It's that time of year.
Fantasy baseball leagues have either reached their head-to-head playoffs or the final Rotisserie categorical maneuvering is taking place, all the while we have that other sport beginning to start stealing some of our attention.
I'll be blunt: When I'm thinking about player value, I'm first thinking about the names on my team.
It's only natural during the season's stretch run, when every at-bat or inning seems to take on greater importance. (As an aside: It only seems that way; from a factual standpoint, April stats are equally relevant as September's.) You want to know about your players, and it's why, as I cobbled the Going Forward Rankings this week, I asked you who piqued your curiosity.
Let's get right to 'em.
Jason Hammel | RHP | Chicago Cubs
@SultanofStat Jason Hammel, contemplating just dropping him for a streaming option. H2H 14 tm 7x7
— Mike (@uofmike) September 8, 2015
Cutting Hammel is a consideration, as his No. 55 ranking among starting pitchers below reflects. A closer look at his recent history hints at fatigue: He pitched over his head in the season's first half in both 2014 (3.01 ERA, 3.33 FIP) and 2015 (2.86 ERA, 3.14 FIP), only to pitch beneath expectations in the second half (4.31 ERA, 5.00 FIP, in 2014; 5.11 ERA, 4.95 FIP). Simply put, he's a pitcher who relies heavily upon command, and he has struggled to maintain it through the course of the 162-game schedule. He had 4.12 and 5.83 K-to-walk ratios in the first halves of the past two seasons, and 2.83 and 2.72 in the second halves. All it means is more matchups homework for Hammel owners going forward, but "matchups homework" is a label applied only to mixed-league streaming candidates.
Todd Frazier | 3B | Cincinnati Reds
@sultanofstat Can a case be made to keep Todd Frazier at this point?
— Matt (@mbyron03) September 8, 2015
He's the No. 58 third baseman on our Player Rater's "Last 15" split, thanks to .231/.268/.346 rates, one home run and zero stolen bases in 13 games during that span. Does that make Frazier cut-worthy? I'd argue no, being that he did have a respectable six-homer, .465-slugging percentage September in 2014. He's still an everyday, heart-of-the-order hitter and he calls a hitter-friendly ballpark his home. Still, his career second-half history warrants mention: He has a .366 career first-half wOBA, and .309 in the second half. One reason why I've been conservative with Frazier's going-forward ranking these past two seasons was worry that this is more fact than fluke.
Quick aside: Frazier's Reds have one of the 10 least favorable hitting schedules the remainder of the season.
Johnny Cueto | RHP | Kansas City Royals
@SultanofStat Cueto is droppable at this point if he has another bad start, right? 14tm h2h 7x7. Cant even trust him enough to start him atm
— Mike (@uofmike) September 8, 2015
The one thing that stands out as a significant change for Cueto since his trade to the Royals has been the performance of his slider. It has generated a mere 11 percent miss rate on hitters' swings, with opponents batting .302/.330/.470 against it; he has 25 percent and .233/.294/.365 numbers with it since the beginning of 2009. Whether that's a product of fatigue -- this is the first time in his big-league career that he has gone as many as 60 starts without being interrupted by a DL stint -- or the league switch is unclear, but Cueto indeed warrants greater matchups scrutiny for the remainder of 2015. One thing to consider: The Royals have one of the 10 least favorable pitching schedules the rest of the year.
Billy Hamilton | OF | Cincinnati Reds
@SultanofStat billy hamilton
— Quinn (@QuinnHunter12) September 8, 2015
I honestly can't believe he's back as a regular. When Hamilton landed on the DL, my suspicion was that the Reds, a team out of the playoff race, wouldn't rush him back and might limit him to mere pinch-running and late-inning defensive duty. Now it appears as if he'll be a regular -- or close to it -- in which case there's no reason to think he can't return to what he was before, which was an effective top-25 Rotisserie player who has significantly less value in points leagues.
Giancarlo Stanton | OF | Miami Marlins
George Springer | OF | Houston Astros
@SultanofStat Giancarlo Stanton and George Springer with regards to returning from wrist injuries
— Mitchell Behrendt (@goobunga82) September 8, 2015
Stanton, unfortunately, suffered a setback after playing in a minor league rehabilitation game last week and his season is now in jeopardy. He falls into that unfortunate "his team isn't contending, so why rush him" group, which is the primary reason he plummeted outside my rankings this week. We should know sometime this week whether he has a realistic chance of returning in 2015.
As for Springer, he has started four of five Astros games since his activation, batting just .188 (3-for-16) with 1 extra-base hit, 1 double, 2 walks and 6 strikeouts. It's too small a sample to judge whether he's significantly shy of full strength, but as he was never much of a batting-average contributor to begin with, he warrants some patience.
Max Scherzer | RHP | Washington Nationals
@SultanofStat Scherzer. What do I do with him? Can we trust Corbin and Holland?
— txb (@tejasxb) September 8, 2015
It's perhaps a hunch, but I think there's as much bad luck as there is regression to the mean going on here. He had a 2.11 first-half ERA and has had a 5.12 ERA in the second half, but then look at his xFIP (which regresses home runs to the mean): 3.05 in the first half, 2.82 in the second. Scherzer has allowed a .370 BABIP and 13.7 home run/fly-ball percentage since the All-Star break; he afforded .300 and 7.0 numbers from the beginning of 2009 through the 2015 break. By the way, of the two primary questions I had about his ability to remain a top-three fantasy starter entering 2015, his fastball velocity has not been an issue. That said, his curveball performance against lefties could be one culprit, going from a .254 wOBA in 2013, to .310 in 2014, to .143 in the first half of 2015, to .385 in the second half. But I'm willing to stand by him as a top-10 starter, considering the Nationals have one of the easiest schedules for a pitcher the rest of the way.
Corey Seager | SS | Los Angeles Dodgers
@SultanofStat Corey Seager
— Nick Koss (@kosstheboss34) September 8, 2015
Well, I was wrong on his playing time projection. In six Dodgers games since his promotion, he has five starts -- three at shortstop and two at third base -- and 24 PAs. Though it's difficult to get a read on whether he's more than a straight platoon man -- remember, shortstop Jimmy Rollins has good numbers against lefties this year, and third baseman Justin Turner is right-handed -- while the Dodgers play in an American League park to begin this week, Seager does appear to be a four-starts-in-six-games kind of player, if not better. He's one of the players who most soared in my rankings this week and I'd openly admit I might have him 100 spots too low.
Kyle Seager | 3B | Seattle Mariners
@SultanofStat c and K seager
— a4tay (@a4Tay) September 8, 2015
It's good to finally see him finishing a year on a high note, isn't it? Entering this season, Seager had a difficult time performing as well after the All-Star break than before it, though this year, he was actually somewhat disappointing in the first half. A closer look at his skill set, though, shows that he's a pretty predictable full-year type: He's a 27-year-old who looks like he has maximized his potential at a .270-25-80 kind of performance level, though he might have a good two or three years more of it.
New ESPN position eligibility
The following players added new position eligibility within the past week. As a reminder, position players need to appear 10 times at a new position to gain in-season eligibility, while pitchers need to make three starts to earn starting-pitching eligibility or five relief appearances to earn relief-pitching eligibility.
Taylor Featherston (2B), Ryan Flaherty (1B), Marwin Gonzalez (OF), Jedd Gyorko (SS), Ryan Jackson (2B), Erik Johnson (RP), Kris Negron (OF), Derek Norris (1B), Andrew Romine (2B), Brendan Ryan (3B), Nick Swisher (OF).
The following players are within two games of earning new eligibility, with their total games played noted at the listed position: Joaquin Arias (SS, 8 games), Daniel Castro (SS, 9 games), Ivan De Jesus (SS, 8 games), Jake Elmore (3B, 9 games), Eduardo Escobar (2B, 9 games), Danny Espinosa (SS, 8 games), Logan Forsythe (3B, 8 games), Corey Hart (1B, 8 games), Brock Holt (1B, 8 games), Paul Janish (SS, 8 games), Will Middlebrooks (SS, 8 games), Wil Myers (1B, 9 games), Rey Navarro (2B, 9 games), David Ortiz (1B, 9 games), Sean Rodriguez (3B, 8 games), Miguel Rojas (2B, 9 games; 3B, 9 games), Jerry Sands (1B, 8 games), Luis Sardinas (2B, 9 games), Donovan Solano (3B, 8 games), Justin Turner (1B, 9 games), Henry Urrutia (OF, 8 games), Jonathan Villar (3B, 8 games).
Going-forward rankings: Week 22
Listed below are my updated, going-forward rankings. These are based upon an ESPN standard league of 10 teams and Rotisserie 5x5 scoring. Click here to see these rankings sorted by position.
