ESPN looks ahead to this weekend's Spanish Grand Prix and the pressure growing on Nico Rosberg
Focus on ... Nico Rosberg
It's way too early to start writing drivers out of contention for the championship, but it's not too early for drivers to start fully contending for the championship. So far this year Nico Rosberg has been unable to match Lewis Hamilton and he now finds himself 27 points adrift of his Mercedes team-mate after just four rounds. If 2014 taught us anything it's that such deficits can disappear with a single retirement, but it's the on-track dominance Hamilton has exerted over his team-mate that should be a cause for concern in the Rosberg camp.
Last year Rosberg was gifted an immediate 25-point advantage when Hamilton suffered a retirement at the first race and that took the pressure off for the following four rounds when Hamilton took four consecutive wins. The mental battle continued to to-and-fro for the rest of the year with Hamilton looking the more fragile of the two up until the summer break, after which Rosberg's challenge imploded with an ill-advised overtaking move at Spa-Francorchamps and the following repercussions.
It was Monaco last year when Rosberg managed to crack Hamilton's composure for the first time by making a sorry-not-sorry mistake at Mirabeau, which ruined his team-mate's qualifying lap and delivered a well-prodded hornets' nest into the Mercedes motorhome. How he breaks Hamilton's stride this year is not yet clear, but he'd do well to listen to some advice from within his own team.
"Nico has the hardest job imaginable," Niki Lauda said after the Bahrain Grand Prix. "Lewis is currently in top form, he makes virtually no mistakes and his confidence is endless. He [Nico] should not dwell on finding complicated explanations, he should just admit if he's made a mistake. He has to take the weight off his mind and go racing as if the world championship is starting from scratch again at the next race."
Over to you, Nico...
In need of points
During pre-season testing, McLaren targeted the Spanish Grand Prix as the race where it would stop having silly problems and start racing competitively. The target is still there but the tone of the message has changed slightly from one of gritty determination to cautious optimism. "We're certainly going into the beginning of the European leg of the season with a positive frame of mind," racing director Eric Boullier said. "Of course, we can never be satisfied with our results until we're fighting for regular victories. However, I'm very pleased with our progress and the efforts of the entire team - both within McLaren and Honda - and we go to Spain hopeful that we can make further progress there." Fernando Alonso's 11th place finish in Bahrain suggests the first points of the season might not be too far away, but equally Jenson Button's failure to start suggests gremlins still reside under the Honda engine cover. The all-new "predatory" colour scheme for this weekend has drawn unfavourable comparisons with the 2010 HRT, but McLaren will be out to prove that that is where the similarities with the pointless backmarkers ends.
In need of a podium
He may have just scored his first podium in over a year, but Kimi Raikkonen is still in need of another. His drive in Bahrain was impressive but it cannot be denied that he benefited from the mistakes of his team-mate. Raikkonen needs to outqualify Sebastian Vettel this weekend to show his true potential, which mainly lies in his ability to register consistently quick laps while giving the tyres minimal punishment.
ESPN prediction
Unless Nico Rosberg can somehow get under his skin, Lewis Hamilton remains the man to beat this weekend.
Betting
Lewis Hamilton is the clear favourite for victory this weekend with odds of 4/9, while Nico Rosberg's lack of form has seen the bookies extend his odds to 3/1. Although comparing tracks is not a good way of predicting form, the front-limited tyre degradation at Barcelona (see tyre talk for more details) means Ferrari is not expected to be as big a threat as in Bahrain. Whether the bookies factored that into the odds of 7/1 for Sebastian Vettel and 9/1 for Kimi Raikkonen is not clear...
Spain is also a big race for McLaren and if you fancy a flutter on the drivers scoring the first points with their revised Honda power units, Fernando Alonso is at 6/5 and Jenson Button at 11/8. A top-six finish returns odds of Alonso at 6/1 and Button at 7/1.
Weather
A zero percent chance of rain over the weekend means the use of the two slick tyre compounds will dominate race strategy. Friday is expected to be the warmest of the three days, with temperatures peaking at 28C, while Saturday will be slightly cooler and Sunday should see some scattered cloud cover, which could drop track temperatures further.
Tyre talk
Prime: Hard (orange)
Option: Medium (white)
Likely strategy: Two stop
Pirelli says: "Spain is obviously one of the more familiar venues that we go to, as there has already been plenty of data gathered during testing. One of the things we have noticed so far is that this year Barcelona will once again be a front-limited circuit, from a tyre perspective. Last year, the increase in traction and torque from the cars meant that for the first time the race became a rear-limited event, with the useful life of the rear tyres dictating the pit stop strategy.
"Thanks to the improvements we made to the rear tyre construction for this year, we're back to Barcelona being a front-limited circuit again. However, we do not expect this to mean that there will necessarily be more pit stops this year: last year the majority of competitors used a two-stop strategy and that will probably be the case again. The biggest unknown factor will be the weather: in the past we have seen some very hot weather in Barcelona, but it isn't always guaranteed. The start of the European season traditionally means that many teams bring important upgrades, and it will be very interesting to see how these interact with our 2015 tyres."
Power play
Renault Sport details the stresses and strains on the main components of the power unit.
ICE: The Circuit de Catalunya sits in the middle of the table for the demands placed on the PU. Only 45% of the track is taken at full throttle, the lowest percentage of the season so far. The 1km long pit straight stresses the ICE for around 12secs, but its effects are mitigated by only short bursts of throttle round the rest of the 4.655km circuit. The only other period of significant throttle comes between Turns 9 and 10, where the ICE will be at close to maximum revs for some 5secs. Speeds on these two straights will peak at over 300kph with DRS open, with the maximum speed being just over 325kph on the main straight. Ultimate top speed will depend on the wind direction, however. If there is a head wind, the top speed will be some 1-4kph lower than with a tail wind. Engineers work to offset the negative effect with minute aero adjustments since gear ratios cannot be changed. This nonetheless affects car balance as a compromise needs to be found; a strong tailwind down the main straight is less detrimental than a headwind.
Turbocharger: Maintaining good driveability over the lap from the turbo is important as the circuit flows a lot better than the modern tracks visited so far. Turn 3, for instance, is taken almost flat out and the driver needs to be able to carry the speed through the corner. Turn 10, the 70kph hairpin requires good turbo response to provide smooth torque delivery and ensure a good exit. Also, traction out of the last corner is arguably more important than top speed to enable an overtaking manoeuvre, which is typically difficult at this circuit. The undulating nature of the track likewise requires good turbo reponse. The first sector rises in altitude by some 15m before descending through sector two. Power delivery up the hill needs to be smooth, but likewise sharp on the exit of the corners.
MGU-K: The circuit has a variety of corner speeds and there are good opportunities for the MGU-K to recover energy under braking. The first is the Turn 1 to 3 complex. The cars arrive at over 300kph and brake to 125kph for the first corner. Another notable chance to recover energy is Turn 5, located in sector 2. The circuit drops down hill, giving the car further momentum, and the driver steps on the brakes for around 3secs. A peak torque of 600Nm is requested from the brakes, an average 30% of which is recovered from the MGU-K in the braking zone. Other braking points come at Turn 10 and Turn 13. T10 is one of the hardest braking zones on the track as the driver will be at 300kph at the entry to the corner. As well as ensuring the MGU-K is recovering as much energy as possible, PU torque accuracy is particularly important here as the circuit goes downhill. Giving the right amount of stability under braking while giving push on the exit is one of the key challenges of the track.
MGU-H: Barcelona is not a particularly challenging circuit for the MGU-H as the pit and back straight will give the MGU-H time to recover the energy lost in the exhaust. Other short bursts between the turns and high speed corners such as Turns 6 and 9 likewise see the ICE running at partial throttle for extended periods of time.