How quickly we cast aside one NFL rookie class for another! All anybody wants to talk about are expectations for Fernando Mendoza, Arvell Reese and Jeremiyah Love.
Slow down for a minute, and let's pontificate on Harold Fannin Jr.
Amid the avalanche of curiosity regarding the 2026 NFL draft class, I took a step back to reevaluate the 2025 class. It's far too early for a redraft or any similar declaration of stardom or bustdom. In fact, I have major questions about several of the highest-drafted sophomores from last season. How will the Jaguars deploy Travis Hunter next season? Is Ashton Jeanty ready to explode in Year 2?
I posed eight of the biggest questions I have about the upcoming sophomore class and did my best to answer them -- or, at the very least, detail what will happen next season to help answer these questions.
Jump to:
How will the Jags use Hunter?
Will Jeanty break out this season?
Is Egbuka the Bucs' WR1?
How high is Fannin's ceiling?
Could Burden, Loveland see more work?
Will Campbell stick at LT for the Pats?
What's next for Emmanwori?
Can the Bengals' LBs improve?
How will the Jaguars play Travis Hunter -- and is that the best approach?
Much has been made of Hunter's role in 2026. The Jaguars played him on offense and defense in his rookie season after trading up in the first round because of that generational versatility. But speculation swirled this offseason that Hunter would become a full-time player on defense and receive a minimized role on offense.
The snowball started during the Jaguars' postseason availability in January, during which general manager James Gladstone predicted Hunter getting an uptick in cornerback snaps: "At this point, walking into the offseason, corner is a position that we have a few guys who are on expiring contracts. By default, you can expect there to be a higher emphasis on his placement."
After that comment, the Jaguars extended one of those expiring contracts (Montaric Brown) but let another (Greg Newsome II) expire. They added only UDFA corners in free agency to replace Newsome's outgoing 518 snaps. The Jaguars would have brought in a veteran if they had uncertainty about playing Hunter there in an expanded role.
As Gladstone said earlier this month on the "Rich Eisen Show," "Last year it was a higher volume, higher percentage of wide receiver usage than it was corner. I think we can expect to see that corner percentile and count go up as we move forward. That's not to say anything impacts his availability and usage on offense. It just means that cornerback usage will increase."
Last season, Hunter had more "two-way" usage than any player we'd seen in a long time. But as Gladstone alludes to, that usage was certainly not balanced. Here's his weekly snap count before he missed the final seven games of the season after tearing his LCL in practice. Of the 459 total snaps, 66% were at wide receiver.
The most reasonable expectation is that the snap counts flip, with Hunter playing two defensive snaps for each of his offensive snaps. Newsome played 100% of the defensive snaps in just one of his games with the Jaguars, as a deep rotation, including Brown, Jarrian Jones and Jourdan Lewis, allowed Jaguars defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile to pick his matchups and keep legs fresh. If Hunter slides into that Newsome role, he won't have to play every defensive snap on top of his offensive appearances.
And how many of those offensive snaps would he have? During his evaluation of the roster, Gladstone didn't discuss Jacksonville's sudden strength at receiver. Last season's breakout Parker Washington and midseason trade acquisition Jakobi Meyers both stepped up in Hunter's absence (and during Brian Thomas Jr.'s disappearing act). The Jaguars did not trade Thomas this offseason, and they have a logjam of playable receivers above Hunter. And with the statement selection of Texas A&M tight end Nate Boerkircher, it's fair to expect the Jaguars to play more two-tight-end sets, which will lower the total snap counts of the receiver room.
Last year, the Jaguars' fourth wide receiver (typically Washington or Tim Patrick) averaged 26.7% of a game's snaps. In a game of about 65 or 70 plays, that's around 18 snaps. Will the Jaguars feel satisfied giving him only 18 snaps per game? I lean no. As Gladstone said, an uptick in corner snaps doesn't necessarily predict a downtick in receiver snaps.
That brings us to the second part of the question: Is this sort of ratio ideal for Hunter? Is full-time defense with an expanding and contracting role on offense optimal? I think so.
My expectation for Hunter has always been that he'll be a full-time corner. I'm very bullish on his future there. He has the body type and movement skills of a cornerback -- lean, sudden, amazing balance and body control through change of direction and contact. The even better news: His technique at corner isn't great, which suggests there's a higher ceiling with some hard coaching. He could become one of the league's premier man coverage players.
The size of Hunter's offensive role should reflect the state of the Jaguars' offense. Do they need more playmaking at receiver? It should not be tinted by the hefty draft capital spent to acquire him or the towering expectations placed on him. My great fear is that Hunter will play corner (and play it well) but get run ragged with offensive snaps as the Jaguars' decision-makers struggle to see their prized pick finish games with one catch for 12 yards on 14 routes. Without snap management, his play at corner might deteriorate by December.
In a worse receiver room, I could understand the urgency. But Thomas, Meyers and Washington are one of the league's better groups. They all fit nicely with one another (so long as Thomas emerges from his sophomore slump), and they can rotate when the Jaguars go to heavier packages. Washington has only one year left on his deal, and if Hunter is destined for a bigger role in 2027 when he departs, let that come in 2027. For now, protect Hunter as he returns to health and finishes his rookie development on the defense, where -- again -- he still has taken only 154 snaps.
Michael DiRocco breaks down why Liam Coen is unconcerned about draft pick criticism.
Is an Ashton Jeanty breakout looming in a healthier Raiders offense?
The Raiders' offense was bad last season, but do we appreciate just how bad?
Since 2010, there have been 512 offensive seasons across every team. The 2025 Raiders are 503rd in yards per offensive play, 500th in yards per drive and 498th in EPA per drive. The Browns saved the Raiders from being the worst offense in the league last year, but there's no hiding that they were one of the 15 worst of the past 15 years.
Here's some more historic context. Again, since 2010, there have been 737 seasons in which a running back has had at least 100 carries. Ashton Jeanty's yards before contact last year (1.26) is 734th.
Yards before contact can be a running back stat, if the ball carrier is dillydallying behind the line and bouncing runs when he should be hitting the hole. But for the Raiders, this is an offensive line problem, and we can say that with some confidence. From 2024 to 2025, the Raiders got a new head coach (Pete Carroll), a new offensive coordinator (Chip Kelly) and a new quarterback (Geno Smith). But Jeanty's horrendous mark in yards before contact is barely cleared by only 2024 Alexander Mattison, who had 1.43 yards before contact on his 132 rushes with the Raiders. Even 2023 Josh Jacobs had only 1.8 yards before contact on his 233 rushes, well below the average mark of 2.44.
The Raiders, even amid more changes in coaching and at quarterback, know this is a problem. They tried to solve it by giving Tyler Linderbaum $81 million guaranteed. Linderbaum is an asset as a puller, both on runs and in the screen game. His presence should elevate the floor of the group -- but he might not be the only new face. Two of John Spytek's draft picks who barely played last season -- guard Caleb Rogers and tackle Charles Grant -- will challenge for starting jobs, as will rookie third-rounder Trey Zuhn III.
This is great news for Jeanty, but the bigger news might be outside of the O-line. New head coach Klint Kubiak has consistently relied on formations with additional blockers -- not just multiple tight ends but also fullbacks -- to create stronger points of attack. Consider that 49% of Jeanty's carries last season were out of 11 personnel, well above the league average of 41% -- and those snaps can get tricky in Las Vegas because tight end Brock Bowers is not an impactful blocker. Under Kubiak, expect to see more 12 and 13 personnel, more under-center formations and the inclusion of free agent acquisition FB Connor Heyward. That's all good news for a running back looking for a jolt.
And of course, an improvement at quarterback will help the running back find room. If Fernando Mendoza immediately hits for the Raiders, stopping Jeanty and the running game will be secondary for opposing defenses. Of course, that blade cuts both ways. If Jeanty can deliver the sort of impact the Raiders expected when they made him a top-10 pick, he'll create a softer developmental runway for Mendoza.
The advanced metrics indicate that Jeanty is ready to shine in a better environment. His 2.40 yards after contact per rush was eighth among all backs last season. His success rate of 32% was last in the group, but his explosive run rate (9.0%) was just below league average. There are enough big plays to point to as proof of concept that Jeanty has the juice.
But can we say confidently that the Raiders' offense has improved enough that a Jeanty explosion is in the cards? Not quite. The bullish case for the offensive line is that at least one, and maybe two Day 2 picks win starting jobs -- but even then, they're playing beside imperfect incumbents in Kolton Miller and Jackson Powers-Johnson. The Raiders' offensive line could take a huge Year 1 leap, but a modest step that anticipates another improvement in 2027 is more likely.
Similarly, while Kubiak invests in the trappings of the running game, he does it more to set up the play-action pass. Seattle's rushing attack emerged in the postseason run, but in the regular season last year, it was 23rd in success rate, 21st in EPA per rush and 20th in explosive rush rate. It was a below-average unit. It is unlikely Kubiak suddenly adopts a run-first, run-well philosophy in Las Vegas with a handpicked QB1 ready to become the next big rookie quarterback.
I'm excited for Jeanty's Year 2. I think the offense and the line will be better (would be tough to be worse!), and as such, I expect a much more productive season on a down-to-down basis. I don't think that a special season similar to the ones we've seen from recent early-drafted backs (Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs) is in the cards for Jeanty just yet.
Is Emeka Egbuka the Buccaneers' new WR1?
Choo-choo. Hear that? It's the Egbuka train leaving the station.
Egbuka hit his rookie year with a full head of steam. The surprising first-round pick by a team with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan, Egbuka immediately grabbed WR1 usage. Through his first five games, he had 25 catches on 38 targets, 445 yards and five touchdowns. Egbuka became one of only 18 players in league history to total at least 400 receiving yards in his first five career games, and one of only nine to do so in the 2000s. The other eight: Puka Nacua, Anquan Boldin, Stefon Diggs, Ja'Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers, Terry McLaurin and A.J. Green. Pretty good company.
Egbuka remained a key contributor to the Buccaneers' passing game throughout, but some of the wind left his sails. A Week 6 hamstring injury robbed him of his top speed; NFL Next Gen Stats tracking data had Egbuka with 11 routes of at least 18 miles per hour through the first five weeks of the season ... and 11 such routes in the remaining 12 weeks, after the hamstring injury. His only 100-plus-yard game after the injury was against New England in Week 10, after the bye week gave him extra time to recuperate. By December, when Godwin, Evans and McMillan all returned from the injuries, Egbuka was splitting WR3 snaps with McMillan. This was crunch time for the playoff-hopeful Bucs, but Egbuka clearly couldn't go.
That was last year. Evans is now a 49er, leaving the titular "WR1" role up for grabs in Tampa Bay. Given Godwin's age (and injury history) along with middle-round draft capital on McMillan and incoming rookie Ted Hurst, it's clear Egbuka is in the pole position to become Baker Mayfield's go-to target.
But it's more than that. It's how new Buccaneers offensive coordinator Zac Robinson talks about Egbuka. Robinson told reporters this week that Egbuka will play the Z receiver role in his offense. That isn't the Drake London role; it's the Cooper Kupp role, from Robinson's days with the Rams. "The amount of work and preparation that [Egbuka] puts into it, he's very similar to a Cooper Kupp just in terms of the way that his brain works with the game of football and natural instincts," Robinson said.
The Bucs' avalanche of receiver injuries during Egbuka's rookie season forced him into a role ill-suited for his skill set. At 6-foot-1 and 205 pounds with only modest speed (4.5-second 40-yard dash at the 2024 combine), Egbuka is not a physically dominant outside receiver with burner speed. Yet, he was 24th among all receivers last season in air yards per target (12.04), with a number similar to players such as Quentin Johnston, Courtland Sutton, Tetairoa McMillan and Rashid Shaheed. That's not Kupp usage.
For the sake of the team, Egbuka was tethered to the line of scrimmage and forced to win one-on-ones. He had 529 routes last season, but he was in motion at the snap on only 29 of them. That will not happen again in 2026. Robinson, who coached under Sean McVay, excels at getting his receivers free releases and easy routes by snapping the ball with them in motion. Tutu Atwell holds the Next Gen Stats record with the most routes in motion in a season with 120 in 2023, but 2024 Cooper Kupp is right behind him with 114, and 2024 Darnell Mooney -- in Robinson's first year as the offensive coordinator of the Falcons -- had 97.
In Atlanta, Robinson had an odd collection of pass catchers. The best options after London were tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. and running back Bijan Robinson. Their roles obviously cannot be mapped nicely onto the Bucs' offense. Still, Pitts and Bijan Robinson were among the leaders at their respective positions in routes in motion at the snap. When Zac Robinson wants to get the ball to someone, he puts that player in motion.
Buccaneers GM Jason Licht joins Pat McAfee and breaks down how injuries affected the 2025 season and the strategy behind the team's offseason additions.
I would have firm belief in a healthy Egbuka playing beside a more balanced receiver room in 2026. With a new coordinator who knows how to make this style of receiver work, my belief is rampant. I could see Egbuka leading the league in targets and receptions. A pass to Egbuka will become synonymous with a handoff, just as a pass to Kupp was during his prime.
What's the ceiling on Harold Fannin Jr.?
The Browns' class was perhaps the most entertaining of the 2025 draft. Linebacker Carson Schwesinger won Defensive Rookie of the Year and looks to be a future star at linebacker. Running back Quinshon Judkins suffered in Jeanty-esque conditions and flashed similar promise. But I want to -- need to -- talk about Fannin.
Fannin was a third-round tight end out of Bowling Green, drafted to develop behind rising free agent David Njoku. By Week 8, Fannin was getting more snaps than Njoku. With 731 yards, Fannin is only the ninth rookie tight end (post-NFL/AFL merger) to clear 700 yards in his rookie season -- and he did it in only 16 games.
Without question, Fannin benefited from a terrible Browns team that didn't have many alternative receiving options. In Week 14, when Njoku went down because of a knee injury, Fannin had 11 targets; the next week, he had 14 (tied with Jake Ferguson for the single-game high of the 2025 season). The Browns had to pass a ton as they regularly faced big second-half deficits, and Fannin's success as a late-release safety valve got him plenty of garbage production.
But for a rookie third-rounder to become the high-volume garbage-time stick-mover indicates just how helpful Fannin was to Cleveland's quarterbacks. A sprightly mover with quick hands, Fannin gets open urgently, maintains leverage and wins contested balls. In September, Fannin was adjusting routes and settling in between zones as a pro.
Browns TE Harold Fannin Jr. running the sort of route the Chiefs love to give Kelce: intermediate out-breaker that can just sit in space.
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) September 19, 2025
Look at Fannin elevate, plucks, then protects the catch point. Really like how he addresses the football. pic.twitter.com/MWcd0pCERf
The league is poor at drafting tight ends -- or perhaps, the league is good at developing middle-round tight ends. However you want to frame it, some of the league's best receiving tight ends were not first-round picks. Trey McBride was a second-rounder; Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and Tucker Kraft were all third-rounders; George Kittle was a fifth-rounder. Appropriately creative coaches can take middle-round tight ends and make them the focal point of passing attacks, especially when they have unique physical traits. Fannin isn't big, but he is a unique mover at the position.
Fannin had an advocate in outgoing head coach Kevin Stefanski -- an ex-tight ends coach. Stefanski was an early adopter of multi-tight-end sets and elicited huge improvements from Njoku during their time together in Cleveland. With incoming head coach Todd Monken, the future is a little cloudier.
There's no doubt that Monken got good play out of two tight ends (Andrews, Isaiah Likely) in Baltimore. But over his five years as an NFL offensive coordinator, his most productive tight end was Andrews in 2024: 55 catches for 673 yards. Fannin outproduced that in Year 1. Andrews was splitting time with Likely. It's fair to assume Fannin might consolidate production in a way Andrews never did for Monken.
Monken tends to run a wideout-dominant passing game -- at least, he has in the pros. But Monken had a stint with the Georgia Bulldogs between his NFL gigs, and he coached Brock Bowers there. Monken compared Fannin to Bowers last month, saying, "He's a little like Brock Bowers in the fact that his body type is more of an H and F, run after the catch ... more than length, more as a C-gap blocking Y. So, you love his athleticism, you like his ability to run after the catch, his ball skills like Brock ... very similar in that regard."
Comparing anyone to Bowers is a bad idea, but I see Monken's point. Both are simply far quicker than typical tight ends. They don't lumber or lag, but rather spring off the ground and create a ton of extra yardage on heavy-footed linebackers or sleeping safeties. As receivers, they're preternaturally comfortable.
Monken rightfully built his Georgia systems around Bowers. Does Fannin demand that level of heliocentrism? Not yet. Bowers has a rugged toughness that serves him well downfield, and I'm not all the way there on Fannin as a three-level threat. But Fannin has everything that elite receiving tight ends need to have in the modern NFL. As long as he clears the manageable bar of "functional blocking," he'll become a household name as one of the league's most dangerous tight ends.
What can Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland do with DJ Moore gone?
It wasn't shocking when the Bears selected Loveland in the first round of the 2025 draft, but it was surprising. Chicago had starting tight end Cole Kmet on a sizable veteran deal, and though Loveland had great potential as a big-bodied receiver, Moore and Rome Odunze were already in place as starting receivers. Did the Bears use the 10th pick on a rookie who would be fourth in the pecking order for targets?
Then, they drafted receiver Burden with the 39th pick -- the presumed fifth receiver in terms of targets!
It's clear that new Bears head coach Ben Johnson had a vision for these pass catchers and how he'd build an offense around them. It wasn't immediate. Johnson's playbook is dense, and injuries through the summer made it tough for Loveland and Burden to stack days on the practice field. The two rookies spent the fall earning more reps as they got more familiar with the offense, and by the winter, they were impactful contributors. Both players more than doubled their target share from the first 10 weeks of the Bears' season to the last 10 weeks.
But some of Burden's emergence was because of the absence of Odunze, who missed five games down the stretch in Chicago. But even on a per-route basis, Burden (26.8% target rate) was used more heavily than Odunze (20.9%). Burden was used more heavily than any Bears pass catcher save for Loveland, who led the team with a 29.1% target rate.
Burden and Loveland were so productive down the stretch that their rookie seasons stand among rarefied company. Burden averaged 2.92 yards per route run during the regular season. That's tied with A.J. Brown for the best mark for a rookie receiver (minimum 50 targets) in the past 15 years. Just below Burden and Brown are Justin Jefferson, Odell Beckham Jr., Puka Nacua and Ja'Marr Chase. Those players did it on remarkably higher volume than Burden, but even the low-usage rookies who spiked in yards per route run (Tank Dell, Christian Watson, Tyreek Hill, Doug Baldwin) indicate a promising future for Burden.
Burden has special physical traits, but he has room to grow on the technical side of the game. He misaligned on a fourth down in the wild-card round against the Packers, went in motion late, missed a check at the line and ran the wrong route on an eventual Caleb Williams interception.
This is important because Burden will not be a part-time player this season. The Bears traded Moore to Buffalo this spring, and Burden is the clear heir apparent to Moore's 1,104 snaps from 2025. But with an expanded role comes more formations, more alignments and more audibles. If Burden has fully ingested the playbook, he might become the WR1 on one of the league's healthiest passing offenses.
I'm not sure he'll truly become the primary target, however, not as long as Loveland is still suiting up on Sundays. Loveland was impossibly dominant across the final games of his rookie year. His 137 receiving yards in the wild-card game were just 5 yards shy of the postseason rookie receiving yards record. Johnson called an isolation Loveland route on a must-get 2-point try late in that fourth quarter. Clearing the paint for the rookie tight end is unheard of.
COLSTON LOVELAND TWO-POINT CONVERSION 🐻
— NFL (@NFL) January 11, 2026
Three-point game!
GBvsCHI on Prime Video
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Hw7Uzerawd
Loveland is an impossible cover. Long and rangy, Loveland eats up ground similar to a receiver in his route stem. Loveland is snappy enough to separate from linebackers, but the real issue is how his size and toughness make him nearly impossible to play through. Safeties keep trying to light him up at the catch point with big hits. They look like they're hit-sticking a telephone pole.
The real needle-mover for Loveland is his blocking ability. He can dig out defensive ends and hold his water one-on-one in the running game. This makes him doubly dangerous in the play-action pass game, as his pre-snap alignment doesn't tip Johnson's hand to the opposing defensive coordinator. Safeties and linebackers have to meet him aggressively when he's blocking downhill. But if they guess wrong and he's climbing vertically for a route, their goose is cooked.
Loveland doesn't benefit as much as Burden does from Moore's departure. Moore had 85 targets during the 2025 season; Loveland ended just short of him with 81. Loveland finished the year with four consecutive games of 10-plus targets; Moore never had more than eight in a game. Moore could have returned, and it still would have been fair to project Loveland as the most important pass catcher in Chicago.
But at this time last year, Johnson was drawing up plays in his office to answer the question "How do we get the ball to Moore? What section of the playbook has my Moore go-tos?" Those questions are gone, and in their place, the Loveland go-tos will fill more chapters. At this time last season, the Bears were hoping he could get healthy soon, but now they're building the offense around his role.
Does Will Campbell have a hook at left tackle?
I really don't think he does. But it's worth examining the question.
The Patriots knew they were inviting this speculation when they drafted rookie tackle Caleb Lomu in the first round of the 2026 draft. Lomu is a left tackle. He is built like one and moves like one. He never played a position other than left tackle at Utah. The moment any team drafts a first-rounder at such a precise position, the league and fanbase will wonder about the incumbent starter's job security.
I buy the Patriots' explanation for drafting Lomu, though. New England's veteran right tackle, Morgan Moses, is 35 years old and has no guaranteed money in 2027. The Patriots needed a better ascension plan and were encouraged by Lomu's predraft workouts, during which he worked out on the right side. My draft request for the Patriots was to "prioritize long-term roster health by investing in future starters along the line, at safety and at tight end." Mission accomplished.
But even if that's the plan, Lomu will burn a hole in the Patriots' pocket should Campbell struggle this season. Campbell's rookie year wasn't even all that discouraging. For much of the regular season, he looked like a solid pass blocker who created some advantages in the running game thanks to his lateral quickness.
Of course, nobody remembers the regular season because Campbell got burned in the playoffs. He suffered a Grade 3 MCL sprain in Week 12 and missed Weeks 13-17 before returning to finish the regular season and contribute to the Patriots' Super Bowl run. Before the injury, Campbell allowed a pressure rate of 11.1% by Next Gen Stats' model (the league average for a left tackle was 10.1%). For a rookie on an island, that's not too shabby. After the injury, that number leapt to 18.4%.
Some of this split is selection bias. Four of Campbell's five post-injury games were against playoff-caliber teams. It's reasonable to expect that he struggled more in the postseason, just as other young players (including Drake Maye) also struggled in the playoffs. The Patriots had an easy regular-season schedule, and postseason opponents put the gimpy Campbell under a harsh spotlight.
But Campbell still had worrisome games in the regular season -- games in which his length deficiency showed up. Myles Garrett and the Browns had five pressures and three sacks against him in Week 8. The Steelers and Nick Herbig put another seven pressures on him in Week 3. During the season, Campbell's lack of length regularly showed up when absorbing bull rushes from long-limbed edges, or when recovering against speedier rushers who had gotten to his corners.
Next Gen Stats had a split on Campbell before the Super Bowl: He allowed a 2.9% sack rate to pass rushers with at least 33½-inch arms and a 1.1% sack rate to rushers with shorter arms. The Seahawks' entire room was built out of supersized rushers, and Campbell gave up a historic 14 pressures in the ensuing title game.
Campbell's arm length has always been a problem, but it is manageable. The simplest explanation is that Campbell was an injured rookie playing in the Super Bowl, took his lumps and will be all the better for it. He'll return this season healthier and with a better understanding of how NFL rushers will try to expose his short arms. As his technique improves, it'll become easier to forget his size disadvantage.
That would be all she wrote ... if the Patriots didn't just draft a college left tackle in the first round. Now, whenever Campbell has a bad game -- and all left tackles not named Trent Williams do -- someone, somewhere will ask if it's time to see Lomu. The Patriots drafted the escape hatch, and now it waits in the corner with big red letters on the front: in case of emergency.
Check out the highlights from Caleb Lomu's draft reel.
What's next for Nick Emmanwori?
In mid-February, the greatest football player in the history of the world was Emmanwori. The rookie sensation safety was the exemplification of the Mike Macdonald defense -- the new Kyle Hamilton. At 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, Emmanwori is a safety who can play linebacker or rush off the edge. The big nickel that typifies modern defense.
Emmanwori was a skeleton key player for the Seahawks. He lined up in a variety of places depending on the offensive formation. By postseason's end, Emmanwori had played the plurality of his snaps at slot corner (43%) with another 40% at linebacker and 11% on the edge. Though listed as a safety, he played only 16 snaps at a true "safety" depth. On his average snap, Emmanwori was 3.5 yards off the line of scrimmage; no other safety was under 4 yards.
When Macdonald talks about Emmanwori's role, he calls him a linebacker. "We're really kind of turning into like a 4-3 base team with a crazy athletic Sam [linebacker]," Macdonald said before the Super Bowl. "I think the cool thing that our front allows us to do, what Nick allows us to do, is we get some front variety that normally you wouldn't get out of a true four-down team."
The Sam linebacker is the strongside linebacker, and on traditional 4-3 teams, he's the linebacker who would occasionally walk up to the line of scrimmage and become a fifth body along the defensive front. Most 4-3 teams have moved away from fielding a Sam linebacker in favor of a nickel corner, as the NFL increasingly became a three-receiver league that wanted to pass the ball. But because the Seahawks trust their Sam linebacker to run and cover and fill space -- he is a defensive back, after all -- they can recover those lost pages of a defensive playbook.
Macdonald's particular framing -- "We're really kind of turning into like a 4-3 base team" -- is important. This wasn't what the Seahawks planned to be, but as Emmanwori dawned in the back half of the season after he suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 1, they changed their defensive identity to maximize him. "We've never really had a player like him, so we are kind of making it up as we go to a certain extent ... I hate to admit that, but we kind of are," Macdonald said in December about Emmanwori.
Part of unearthing Emmanwori's role was about all the things he can do, but another part concerned his limitations. Emmanwori spent so much time close to the line of scrimmage because his angles from depth can be shaky. He also isn't a particularly strong dropping in zone -- most young players struggle to play with eyes in the back of their heads as they drop into intermediate zones. But Macdonald hid Emmanwori from getting stretched in zone by blitzing him or tying him to a player in man coverage. Next Gen Stats had Emmanwori with an average zone depth of 3.8 yards last season -- closer to the line of scrimmage than the next-closest defensive back by a yard.
It's reasonable to compare Emmanwori to Hamilton, but this is a key way in which they differ. Macdonald would play Hamilton on the line as a quasi-edge rusher much as he does Emmanwori. But Macdonald could drop Hamilton into zones much more faithfully than he did Emmanwori last season. Hamilton's zone drop depth as a rotational rookie for Macdonald in 2022 was 4.7 yards -- an Emmanwori-esuqe number. In Hamilton's sophomore season as a full-time player, it was 8.1 yards.
At times, Emmanwori feels and plays more as an undersized edge rusher than a supersized safety. When creative defensive coordinators call zany blitzes that drop defensive linemen into coverage, they limit the ask for that defensive lineman in zone coverage. That's how Macdonald treated Emmanwori last year. It worked wonderfully. Emmanwori can set a ridiculously tough edge for a 220-pounder, he has the length and foot speed to swallow routes whole in man coverage and he plays with urgency and physicality through contact to get involved in pursuit plays. He'll be a great "edge safety" for a long time in a defense that knows how to maximize his skills.
But for Emmanwori to really be a dominant defensive back, he needs to accept a bigger challenge in coverage in Year 2. All signs point to him being able to do so. Macdonald raves about Emmanwori's eagerness for increased responsibility, and a full offseason with Macdonald's playbook will certainly help him. But Emmanwori is also enormous, and a 6-foot-3 zone defender simply occupies more space than one who's 5-foot-11. This widens his margin for error.
To this point, Emmanwori is a unique X factor on a well-schemed defense. If he can become a more trustworthy player dropping into zone, he'll truly ascend to that Kyle Hamilton/Derwin James Jr. tier of perennial All-Pro play at safety.
Can the Bengals' linebackers answer the call?
You're forgiven if you can't recall the Bengals' linebackers. Demetrius Knight Jr., the Bengals' second-rounder, was immediately asked to start opposite Logan Wilson. By Week 6, the Bengals benched Wilson to play fourth-rounder Barrett Carter as the Mike linebacker. Those two formed the starting duo for the rest of the season.
It didn't go well. The Bengals' run defense was a bottom-five unit in large part because of how often Knight and Carter missed tackles. Pro Football Reference had Knight with a 14.5% missed tackle rate, sixth among all off-ball linebackers. Carter was seventh at 13.8%. To be clear, they were far from the only culprits. Both of the Bengals' starting safeties (Jordan Battle and Geno Stone) had worse tackling rates. But the Bengals addressed those struggles with the free agency acquisitions of safeties Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger. They left linebacker entirely untouched.
Thankfully, the Bengals hedged their linebacker bet by improving their defensive tackles. That's where run defense starts, after all. By trading the 10th pick for Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II, the Bengals bet that Lawrence can stop runs from climbing to the second level to test the linebackers' tackling. Last year's Bengals had a stuff rate (percentage of runs stopped for no gain or a loss) of 10.2%. That wasn't just the worst number of all defenses last season, but it's the worst number of any defense over the past five years.
Peter Schrager reacts to the Bengals getting a matchup vs. the Falcons in Spain.
With Lawrence (and Boye Mafe, Jonathan Allen and Cashius Howell), the Bengals are clearly communicating that they think the issue started on the defensive front. And it's tough to argue when you see those stats. But the best teams last season were getting stuff rates around only 20%; runs will still get to the second level. There's no way to hide poor linebacker play in the modern NFL. Opposing coordinators have gotten too good at putting those guys in conflict.
It's tough to generate rosy projections from the film alone. Knight and Carter looked like rookies last year. Carter is fooled all too easily by backfield action, jumping at shadows on one play and freezing in place on the next. Knight was seeing it quicker and cleaner by the end of the season, but his lack of flexibility and agility in space forced him to take on contact at bad angles. It's not hard to foresee the missed tackle issues continuing into next season.
But it was also the first year in Al Golden's defense. Linebacker is a position that tends to have a steep learning curve. The safety play should be better, which will alleviate stress on the linebackers in coverage, and the defensive line play should be better, which will clear up the picture for the rookies. The table has been set for them to rise to the challenge. It's hard to see the Bengals' defense taking a leap if someone in this linebacker unit doesn't take it individually.