FIFA has always had a cheat code. It knows the more soccer it gives us, the more we'll love it -- and the more it can then get away with. Soccer is an endless resource of entertainment, and sure enough, you could make the case that in the early going, the biggest, priciest World Cup has been the best one yet.
Whatever you like, this one has had it in abundance.
You like it when the stars shine? Well, Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane and Erling Haaland couldn't be shining any brighter.
You like it when new players come out of the blue to become part of World Cup lore? Say hello to Cape Verde's Vozinha (a star versus Spain) and Curacao's Eloy Room (who tied a World Cup record versus Ecuador).
You like it when the favorites look like world-beaters for solid stretches of time? You must have really enjoyed those early games from France, England, Germany and (especially) Argentina.
You like it when the supposed minnows take points off the heavyweights? Cape Verde's draw with Spain and Congo DR's draw with Portugal must have sent shivers down your spine.
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Having more teams means having more stories to follow and more players to get to know. It also means more teams in the knockout rounds, so let's stop wasting time.
An incredible 32 teams will take part in the World Cup knockout rounds, which will begin Sunday in Los Angeles. Let's talk about why every single one of them could win this thing (and why they probably won't).
(Note: As the group stage continues to play out, we'll fill this list with either teams that have clinched advancement to the knockout rounds or teams with at least four points in the group stage, as it's almost mathematically certain that they also will advance. All round-of-32 matchups are projected based on current standings: We will update this page with those likely matchups too as the bracket takes shape. Also, Opta odds will be updated as more teams qualify.)
Jump to: Algeria | Argentina | Australia | Austria | Belgium | Bosnia & Herzegovina | Brazil | Canada | Cape Verde | Colombia | Congo DR | Croatia | Ecuador | England | Egypt | France | Germany | Ghana | Ivory Coast | Japan | Mexico | Morocco | Netherlands | Norway | Paraguay | Portugal | Senegal | South Africa | Spain | Sweden | Switzerland | United States
ALGERIA (third in Group J; 1-1-1 W-D-L)
Title odds, per Opta: 0.2%
R32 opponent: Switzerland in Vancouver, Thursday
Why they will win it all: A delightful possession game. Usually the strongest teams with the major talent advantages are the ones that dominate possession. Granted, Algeria have plenty of talent -- 13 of their 26 players were at clubs in Europe's Big Five leagues last season -- but their possession game far exceeds their supposed stature.
They had the highest pass completion rate (91.3%) of anyone in the group stage, and they had the best in the attacking third, too (87.9%). They averaged the second-most passes per possession (9.4) with the sixth-best overall possession rate (62.1%). It was possession with a purpose, too: They created six shots worth at least 0.2 xG (13th) and scored five goals (19th). They have some extreme veterans in their buildup unit -- center backs Ramy Bensebaini (31) and Aissa Mandi (34) and defensive midfielder Nabil Bentaleb (31) -- as well as younger players such as Ibrahim Maza (20) and Rayan Ait-Nouri (25) to provide some energy in pressing moments, too.
Why they won't: A tired defense. Their back line may be experienced and patient in attack, but it's also slow and tired in defense; Algeria allowed seven open-play goals in three matches, fifth most in the tournament, and they were below average in terms of both shot quantity allowed (22nd in shots per possession) and shot quality allowed (23rd in xG per shot).
Granted, they had to face Leo Messi and Argentina to start, but they allowed four more goals to Jordan and Austria, too. With the proper speed, you can hit them pretty hard in transition.
ARGENTINA (first in Group J; 3-0-0)
Title odds, per Opta: 16.3%
R32 opponent: Cape Verde in Miami, Friday
Why they will win it all: The team is once again perfect for Leo Messi. And he's somehow getting ... better? In his first 19 World Cup matches, Messi scored six goals, a total most players in the world would dream of. In his past nine matches, all played after his 35th birthday, he has scored 12.
The GOAT stands alone.
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) June 22, 2026
MESSI BECOMES THE ALL-TIME LEADING GOALSCORER IN MEN'S FIFA WORLD CUP HISTORY 🇦🇷 pic.twitter.com/aWY9thIuUG
Argentina won the 2022 World Cup thanks in part to a group of younger players who did all the running so that Messi only had to do the scoring. And with Enzo Fernández, Lisandro Martínez & Co. once again sweeping up any messes that come their way, it's working again so far in the U.S. this summer.
Argentina have yet to allow a goal -- or a single shot attempt worth even 0.15 xG -- and Messi leads the competition in goals (five) and shots on goal (eight) and leads his team in progressive passes, progressive carries, fouls won and ground duels won. The formula is working again, and they haven't even gotten anything out of Julián Álvarez yet.
Why they won't: Good teams could pen them in. For as much incredible work as Fernandez in particular is doing, Argentina have still played pretty passive defense and have allowed Algeria and Austria to work the ball into semi-dangerous areas. They've also had no aerial presence, winning just 40% of their aerial duels (one of the worst percentages in the competition).
Most of the tournament's other favorites will have a size advantage and will be able to play a strong possession game. Will the "absorb pressure, then counter with Messi" thing work well enough to beat a couple of those favorites?
AUSTRALIA (second in Group A; 1-1-1)
Title odds, per Opta: 0.3%
R32 opponent: Egypt, July 3
Why they will win it all: No clean looks. In three group stage matches, Australia allowed opponents to attempt one shot worth over 0.2 xG: Alex Freeman's goal late in the first half of their loss to the U.S. Otherwise, they gave opponents nothing.
This is a team that will play with a five-man back line, clog all shooting lanes -- 96.4% of opponents shots have come with at least two defenders between the ball and the goal -- and wait for a counterattacking opportunity. If those opportunities don't come, that's fine; they're still not going to give you anything good. Center backs Alessandro Circati and Harry Souttar have been fantastic, Patrick Beach has a save percentage of 91.7%, and the Socceroos have kept clean sheets in two of three matches.
Why they won't: They don't get clean looks either. It's great that Australia allowed only two goals in three matches; they only scored two, too. They rank just 40th in the competition in xG per shot (0.10). They tried to counterattack quite a bit, but didn't do it well outside of Nestory Irankunda's brilliant goal against Turkey, and they don't have much of a buildup game to lean on either.
Effort and resolute defense are strengths, but you still probably have to score at some point.
AUSTRIA (second in Group J; 1-1-1)
Title odds, per Opta: 0.1%
R32 opponent: Spain in Los Angeles, Thursday
Why they will win it all: Short fields and clean looks. With Ralf "the original gegen-presser" Rangnick in charge, Austria have produced a solid number of opportunistic moments, creating 38 high turnovers (seventh) and starting their possessions an average of 40.3 meters up the pitch (third). Meanwhile, with tall guys in the front and back -- Stefan Posch (6-foot-3) and Kevin Danso (6-foot-3) in defense and a rotation of Michael Gregoritsch (6-foot-4), Marko Arnautovic (6-foot-4) and Sasa Kalajdzic (6-foot-7) up front -- they've won 63.6% of all aerial duels (fourth), and they've scored two goals via header (tied for first), including Kalajdzic's campaign-saving goal in stoppage time against Algeria.
AN INSANE ENDING TO THE GROUP STAGE FOR AUSTRIA 🇦🇹 pic.twitter.com/aTpvHu7OPs
— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) June 28, 2026
This is a unique team with unique advantages.
Why they won't: They only win in the air. Austria won just 75 ground duels in three matches (fewest of any team) with a win rate of 47.0% (43rd). They were 21st in both progressive carries and progressive passes allowed, 23rd in shots allowed per possession and 30th in xG allowed per shot. Like Algeria, they had to pay the Messi tax by being in Argentina's group, but despite moments of solid pressure, this is an aging and slow team in lots of areas -- players 25-and-under accounted for just 17% of their minutes -- and that will catch up to them.
BELGIUM (first in Group G; 1-2-0 W-D-L)
Title odds, per Opta: 1.6%
R32 opponent: Senegal in Seattle, Wednesday
Why they will win it all: Jérémy Doku. He famously missed Belgium's stolid 0-0 draw with Iran, and despite having played only 53% of Belgium's minutes thus far, he leads his team in one-on-one attempts (19) and fouls won in the attacking third (three). That's a pretty stiff reminder of what Doku can do.
When he's on the pitch, Belgium's attack is menacing. He's always a threat to tear past defenders and create an opportunity for someone in the box. Belgium scored six goals in the two matches he played and none when he didn't.
Assuming he'll be on the pitch for their one to five remaining matches, they're a threat.
Why they won't: Creaks and groans. Thibaut Courtois, Kevin De Bruyne and Thomas Meunier are all 34 years old, and Romelu Lukaku, Brandon Mechele and Hans Vanaken are all 33. Somehow 29-year-old Youri Tielemans qualifies as a youngster on this squad.
Players 30 and over have accounted for more than half of Belgium's minutes; the country's golden generation began to lose its shine a while ago but is still on the pitch because younger generations haven't provided enough punch. Even Doku probably can't overcome that.
BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA (third in Group B; 1-1-1)
Title odds, per Opta: 0.1%
R32 opponent: USA, July 1
Why they will win it all: Trees. Center backs Nikola Katic and Tarik Muharemovic are 6-foot-4 and 6-3, respectively. Ageless center forward Edin Dzeko is 6-4, as is midfielder Benjamin Tahirovic. Forward Ermedin Demirovic, attacking midfielder Kerim Alajbegovic and midfielder Ivan Sunjic are 6-1. Left back Sead Kolasinac is a measly 6 feet.
Bosnia and Herzegovina have a height advantage over anyone they play, and they know it: They're attempting 33.3 aerial duels per game and winning 65.0% of them (third in the competition). They play physically (read: commit a lot of fouls), and three of their five goals have come from set pieces (surprisingly, only one from a header). They might be the most unusual matchup in the entire tournament.
Why they won't: Everything lower to the ground. They don't have the speed to counterattack effectively, and while they don't play directly, they also don't pass the ball well enough to pull off a dangerous possession game. They are unique, and they know exactly what they have to do to beat you, but they defeated only Qatar in group play.
BRAZIL (first in Group C; 2-1-0)
Title odds, per Opta: 6.5%
Projected R32 opponent: Japan in Houston, Monday
Why they will win it all: They still have the attacking talent. Even with the loss of Raphinha to a hamstring injury, they still have Real Madrid's Vinícius Júnior (four goals and one assist thus far), they still have forwards Matheus Cunha and Igor Thiago, and they still have players such as Gabriel Martinelli, Luiz Henrique, Rayan and Endrick, who have yet to get fully involved. (They also have Neymar, who is 34 years old and hurt and probably shouldn't be there but might still have one last burst of World Cup magic in him.)
Vinícius salvaged the Morocco match with a single moment of brilliance and dominated Scotland -- Carlo Ancelotti might be the best manager in the world when it comes to unlocking those moments.
Why they won't: You can't field 10 forwards. You need fullbacks, for one thing, and somehow Ancelotti's best options there remain Flamengo's 34-year-old Danilo and Zenit St. Petersburg's 32-year-old Douglas Santos. And for the strength that Vinícius & Co. possess up top, Raphinha was the closest thing to a strong pressing presence: A lack of full-team defense is putting strain on a midfield that is still asking 34-year-old Casemiro to clean up messes.
They're strong at center back with Marquinhos and Gabriel Magalhães, but while you only have so much control over the balance of your national team player pool, Brazil's has perhaps never been this unbalanced.
CANADA (second in Group B; 1-1-1)
Title odds, per Opta: 0.5%
R32 opponent: South Africa in Los Angeles, Sunday
Why they will win it all: They know who they are. There can be great power in identity, and Canada's Jesse Marsch is keeping the Red Bull spirit alive.
His team plays fast. The Canadians are averaging the fourth-most counterattack attempts in the competition and the second-most fast high-win sequences (those starting in the attacking third and lasting fewer than 13 seconds with fewer than six passes). They've scored three goals from high turnovers, and they've allowed the second-fewest progressive passes and progressive carries per game (though playing against Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar probably helped keep those numbers low).
They're creating quick-strike opportunities. Jonathan David and Cyle Larin are converting chances, and while their loss to Switzerland means they won't have any more matches in Canada, drawing South Africa in the round of 32 could be worse.
Why they won't: Red Bull is yesterday's news. At the club level, the full-throttle style Marsch proselytized at RB Leipzig and Leeds United has grown a little outdated, with the best clubs playing a more nuanced style capable of withstanding pressure and exploiting gaps. If they beat South Africa, they will draw either Morocco or the Group F champion (Netherlands or Japan) in the round of 16; would they do damage against a talented and well-organized team?
CAPE VERDE (second in Group H; 0-3-0 W-D-L)
Title odds, per Opta: <0.1%
R32 opponent: Argentina in Miami, Friday
Why they will win it all: Defense, defense, defense. We've seen quite a few underdogs ride defense to happy results, but perhaps none have been quite as committed as everyone's new favorite team.
Cape Verde have made 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha a star, and they allowed just two total goals in a group that featured Spain and Uruguay. They win second balls like no one's business, they get in the way of almost every shot, and Vozinha scoops up whatever gets through in almost casual fashion. And hey, if you can tie Spain, you can tie or beat Argentina, right?
Why they won't: Offense, offense, offense. Both of Cape Verde's goals were incredibly memorable: Kevin Pina scored on a 32-yard free-kick missile to give them the lead against Uruguay, and then Hélio Varela scored on a breakaway to tie the score in the second half.
EMPTY NET GOAL 🚨
— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) June 21, 2026
Cape Verde equalizes after Muslera gets caught in no man's land! pic.twitter.com/wI6Y4iRAbf
Unfortunately, that was their entire output. They attempted just two higher-value shots (0.2 xG or higher) in three games, and they've put just 21% of their shots on target (46th out of 48 teams). This team can swarm and defend and fight, but it has very little to offer in the opponent's box.
COLOMBIA (first in Group J; 2-1-0)
Title odds, per Opta: 3.2%
R32 opponent: Ghana in Kansas City, Friday
Why they will win it all: Relentlessness. With players such as Luis Díaz, Jhon Arias and aging (aged?) James Rodríguez, Colombia's lineup is loaded with players who are always looking to attack and stress opponents. Those three players have combined for a goal, an assist, 23 chances created, 72 progressive passes (a majority from Rodriguez) and 26 ground duels won (a majority from Diaz). And as a team, through two matches Colombia are averaging 19.7 shots per game (third) and 12.0 fouls drawn per game (16th) with a 54.6% duel success rate (third) and a 31.6% success rate on crosses (sixth). (They're also getting called offside 4.3 times per game, the second-most in the tournament.)
Colombia are relentless, and it's paid off with late goals to put away a win over Uzbekistan and go ahead against Congo DR. And they generated far more threat than Portugal in the teams' 0-0 draw, too.
Why they won't: Shot quality. Part of being willing to try stuff is being willing to make mistakes. Colombia have been drawn offside five times per game, the most in the tournament, and while their shot volume has been impressive, they're averaging just 0.10 xG per shot, 37th out of 48 teams. They rank 27th in xG allowed per shot, too. Winning the shot quantity competition is canceled out if your opponents are taking much better shots than you are and if you can't keep overachieving in the finishing department as Colombia have to date.
CONGO DR (third in Group K; 1-1-1)
Title odds, per Opta: <0.1%
R32 opponent: England in Atlanta, Wednesday
Why they will win it all: Resolute defense and an offense on call. Of the 10 African teams in the World Cup, an incredible nine of them advanced to the knockout rounds. It's an amazing achievement, and it was primarily due to brilliantly organized defense. (This probably wasn't a surprise to anyone who watched the last AFCON tournament: The last four matches -- semifinals, third-place match and finals -- featured two total goals.)
Congo DR have defended as well as anyone. They have allowed 0.08 xG per shot (fifth in the competition) and have kept at least two defenders between ball and goal for 95.6% of opponents' shots (sixth). They have major-club defenders in fullbacks Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Arthur Masuaku and center back Axel Tuanzebe, and they are one of the more physically strong teams in the tournament. But they also have a little bit of pop in attack thanks to Newcastle United's Yoane Wissa, who scored the tying goals against both Portugal and Uzbekistan and put the 3-1 win over Uzbekistan away with a late goal as well.
They trailed in all three group-stage games, but they still produced four points and advanced. This team is talented, strong and resilient.
Why they won't: One note. Congo DR are extremely dangerous in direct attacks, but they have nothing else. They have just one buildup attack -- sequences with 10 or more passes that end in a shot or a box touch -- in three games (45th), and they average just 4.3 passes per possession (42nd). It's directness or nothing, and a lack of adaptability will likely do them in soon, no matter how good the defense is.
CROATIA (third in Group L; 2-1-0)
Title odds, per Opta: 0.6%
R32 opponent: Portugal in Toronto, Thursday
Why they will win it all: Accuracy where it counts. Manchester City's Josko Gvardiol and Mateo Kovacic, Bayern Munich's Josip Stanisic, PSV's Ivan Perisic, Atalanta's Mario Pasalic, AC Milan's Luka Modric. If there's one thing Croatia don't lack, it's guys who can make the right pass at the right time. It's incredible that they're still relying on some of these guys -- Modric is 40, Perisic is 37, Kovacic is 32, Pasalic is 31, and substitute attacker Andrej Kramaric is 35 -- but after a loss to England, this seasoned core came through once again with wins over Panama and Ghana, and they're once again the team no one wants to see in a knockout competition.
Here are two stats that back up the "right touch at the right time" thought: In this tournament, Croatia are fourth in pass completion rate in the attacking third (86.4%) and sixth in shots on target (45.8%). They also draw contact constantly, ranking eighth in fouls drawn per game (14.0). They're still crafty, still dangerous and still Croatia.
Why they won't: The age shows. Granted, Stanisic, Pasalic and Gvardiol are all 26 or younger, as is exciting left winger Martin Baturina. But Croatia's statistical profile screams "old team" -- they're 30th in ball recoveries, 37th in passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) and 43rd in direct speed (meters per second that the ball moves up the pitch in a given sequence).
They aren't going to win a speed competition, and if/when urgency is required in the knockouts, that probably won't go well for Croatia.
ECUADOR (third in Group E; 2-1-0)
Title odds, per Opta: 0.6%
R32 opponent: Mexico in Mexico City, Tuesday
Why they will win it all: They've saved up some goals. After starting the tournament with one of the most preposterous streaks of futility you'll see -- 39 shots, 3.85 xG and no goals against Ivory Coast and Curacao -- Ecuador came through when it mattered. Needing a win over Germany but trailing from nearly the opening kick, they scored in the ninth and 77th minutes, held on late and secured a semi-miraculous win.
The xG gods still owe them a bit (they now have two goals from shots worth 5.1 xG), but if they can convert their chances and Moisés Caicedo, Piero Hincapié, Willian Pacho & Co. continue defending like crazy -- Ecuador allowed just two goals and shots worth 2.7 xG in three matches -- they're going to be a very tough out in the knockout rounds.
Why they won't: Offense was always going to be an issue. While there is big-club talent across their defensive block -- Caicedo (Chelsea), Hincapie (Arsenal), Pacho (PSG), Pervis Estupiñán (AC Milan) -- Ecuador are still heavily reliant on 36-year-old Enner Valencia and Gonzalo Plata in attack. Even with smiting from the god of xG, they're always going to struggle to create good chances against particularly good defenses.
ENGLAND (first in Group L; 2-1-0)
Title odds, per Opta: 9.7%
R32 opponent: Congo DR in Atlanta, Wednesday
Why they will win it all: Relentless star power. Thomas Tuchel knows what he wants. He wants speed on the perimeter, he wants industry in midfield, and he wants to slowly overwhelm opponents and make England feel inevitable. And through two matches, that's what they've done.
Even with shaky moments in the first half against Croatia and late against Ghana, they've crafted an xG differential of +1.5 per match (sixth). They're second in shots per possession and 13th in shots allowed. They have attempted six shots worth at least 0.2 xG and allowed none. They've attempted 79% of their shots in the box and allowed just 56%. And as we would expect from the country that houses the Premier League (and Arsenal), they've attempted 6.0 shots per game from set pieces alone, most in the tournament.
At worst, England have the third-most talented roster at the World Cup, Tuchel is happy to arrange the chess pieces in his favor and wait for his opponent's inevitable collapse. They probably will more often than not.
Why they won't: Where's the creativity? Tuchel chose pragmatism and order over creativity when opting to leave players like Trent Alexander-Arnold, Cole Palmer, Phil Foden and Jarrod Bowen at home. He's crafted a physically dominant team, but he also crafted a team that ranks just 13th in progressive passes (61.7 per game) and completed just two through balls in their first two matches. Their overall superiority in the second half against Croatia affirmed their capabilities and massive upside, but their inability to break down Ghana's packed-in defense in the second match reminded us how creativity can bail you out of a jam sometimes.
(Also, Declan Rice seems to be dealing with a calf issue after basically sprinting more than any player on Earth over the past nine months of club play; without a full-strength Rice -- or any full-strength right back -- it's a lot harder for them to dominate physically.)
EGYPT (second in Group G; 1-2-0)
Title odds, per Opta: 0.4%
R32 opponent: Australia in Dallas, Friday
Why they will win it all: Mo and the break-evens. For such a soccer-obsessed country -- seven AFCON titles, with two clubs (Al Ahly and Zamalek) responsible for 17 CAF Champions League titles -- Egypt's World Cup résumé was almost blank until this year: seven total matches, two draws, five losses. They had bowed out quietly in 2018 and failed to qualify in 2022.
But they went unbeaten in Group G, with a win over New Zealand and two draws, and they finished with five points and delightfully neutral stats: They've attempted slightly more shots than their opponents, they've counterattacked with verve and they've attempted a lot of duels (and won slightly more than 50% of them). They're breaking even. And when you're breaking even overall but have the only Mo Salah on the pitch, you win. Salah has a goal and two assists, and Egypt are into the knockout rounds for the first time.
Why they won't: Age and sprinting. Egypt simply outran New Zealand on Sunday, and they have indeed been one of the more successfully direct teams in the tournament. But direct play might not work against the better teams in the field. And relying on sprints and speed when your team is one of the oldest at the World Cup -- players 29 or older have accounted for 57% of their minutes, and the linchpin is the 34-year-old Salah -- doesn't seem like a wonderful combination.
FRANCE (first in Group I; 3-0-0)
Title odds, per Opta: 18.7%
R32 opponent: Sweden in New York/New Jersey, Tuesday
Why they will win it all: This tournament brings out the best in Kylian Mbappé. It's been an odd few years for Mbappe at the club level. His Paris Saint-Germain teams usually disappointed in the Champions League, and when he left for reigning champion Real Madrid, they began to disappoint and PSG won back-to-back Champions League titles. It's all been enough to consider renaming the Ewing Theory. But at the international level, where direct tactics work a little better and his abject refusal to even pretend to contribute defensively isn't as costly, both Mbappe and France continue to shine.
After a dud of a first half against Senegal, France have outscored opponents 10-2 in their past 2.5 halves, with Mbappé, Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé combining for eight goals and six assists. They remain happy to allow lesser opponents possession of the ball, then explode into transition spaces.
As with Argentina, we know this formula works, and since France probably has the most raw talent in the tournament, we have no reason to think it will stop working.
Why they won't: Passive, passive defense. It's one thing to allow a possession-hungry team like Spain or England to have lots of the ball. But after matches against Senegal and Iraq, France rank 20th in progressive passes allowed, 26th in passes allowed per defensive action and 29th in progressive carries allowed. They're making far fewer defensive interventions than they did in the 2018 or 2022 finals runs (and Dayot Upamecano is having to make a huge percentage of them), and they're both committing and drawing fewer fouls.
It's less of a concern than a point of interest right now, but it's definitely something to watch.
GERMANY (first in Group D; 2-0-1)
Title odds, per Opta: 4.4%
R32 opponent: Paraguay in Boston, Monday
Why they will win it all: Almost all the right guys are hot. Kai Havertz missed much of the season with injury, but he has produced eight goals and four assists in his past 15 matches for club and country. Joshua Kimmich is serving up danger on set pieces. Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala could be hotter, sure, but Wirtz still has two World Cup assists and Musiala scored against Curacao. And when in doubt, bring on super sub Deniz Undav (three goals and two assists in 86 minutes).
WOULD YOU BELIEVE IT? 🤯
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) June 20, 2026
GERMANY TAKES THE LEAD IN STOPPAGE TIME! pic.twitter.com/hVrMbRwxFx
(Was it poor defensive positioning? Yes, but what a pass and what a touch to control it.)
Midfielders Felix Nmecha and Aleksandar Pavlovic are providing the perfect combination of industry and box-crashing attack. Emerging left back Nathaniel Brown is running himself ragged, making defensive interventions, firing in accurate crosses and even scoring against Curacao. (He sat against Ecuador with a slight knock, and his absence was noticeable.) You can see why Julian Nagelsmann put together the lineup he did.
Why they won't: Losses of control. From the third minute to the 55th minute against the U.S. in a pre-World Cup friendly, Germany were outscored 1-0 with an xG (expected goals) differential of minus-0.35. From the 21st to the 67th minute against Ivory Coast on Saturday, they were again outscored 1-0 with an xG differential of minus-0.59. Against Ecuador, they scored on their first shot, but got outscored 2-0 (xG: Ecuador 1.27, Germany 0.54) the rest of the way. Yes, Ecuador had more motivation because Germany had already clinched first place in the group, but this was the continuation of a trend.
These are long periods of ineffectiveness against good-not-great teams, and it's something they can't afford against the best competition. Without defender Nico Schlotterbeck -- who was injured against Ivory Coast and might well be done for the tournament -- this vulnerability might increase.
GHANA (third in Group L; 1-1-1)
Title odds, per Opta: 0.3%
R32 opponent: Group K winner, July 3
Why they will win it all: A ridiculous defense. It's one thing to hold Panama scoreless; they have mastered the art of playing passionate, energetic ball without actually doing anything. But it's quite another to do it to England. Ghana committed to a physical, defensive identity when they hired veteran Carlos Queiroz as manager, and despite a general lack of firepower in attack, they advanced by giving up zero goals for the first 210 minutes of the tournament.
Despite having played England and Croatia, they rank eighth out of 48 teams in xG allowed per shot (0.09), and despite top goalkeeper Lawrence Ati Zigi getting injured against Panama, backup Benjamin Asare filled in and thrived against England.
Benjamin Asare celebrates a clean sheet as Ghana holds England scoreless 🇬🇭 pic.twitter.com/Ba37Bcmkqt
— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) June 23, 2026
This team is willing to suffer and has created a handful of dangerous opportunities on the counter. In fact, they were unlucky not to draw a late penalty and potentially beat England. Star attacker Antoine Semenyo hasn't really gotten going yet, either. If he grows into the competition, Ghana become even more dangerous.
Why they won't: You'll need to score at some point. Caleb Yirenkyi's late winner against Panama, set up by a brilliant Brandon Thomas-Asante run, was an incredibly memorable goal. They scored against Croatia, too, but they've attempted only 15 shots in three matches. Only Saudi Arabia and Uzbekistan averaged fewer shots per possession. Playing brilliant defense is a great thing, but it's going to be awfully difficult to win five knockout matches via shootouts after 120 scoreless minutes.
IVORY COAST (second in Group E; 2-1-0)
Title odds, per Opta: 0.2%
R32 opponent: Norway in Dallas, Tuesday
Why they will win it all: They have a plan. Against Ecuador, Germany and Curacao, Ivory Coast played three extremely different opponents and three extremely different games. Their possession rate ranged from 41.1% to 62.9%, they played a high-possession game and a low-possession game, they averaged 8.9 passes per possession against Curacao and 5.3 against Germany. They were extremely direct against Ecuador and extremely pragmatic against Curacao. And through all that, they won two matches and led Germany late.
They're well-coached, they're extremely adaptable, and almost half their World Cup minutes are coming from players currently employed in Europe's Big Five leagues. Why on earth couldn't they make a run?
Why they won't: They don't shoot. Whether they were playing methodical ball or something more direct, the one area of consistency was shot volume. They're averaging just 0.09 shots per possession, 37th of the 48 teams, and only 61.3% of the shots they've taken were in the box (27th).
Yan Diomande was a breakout star for RB Leipzig this year, and he's a sudden star for his country, but while he's created 10 chances for teammates, he's attempted only three shots, and no one's attempted more than six. Where will the offense come from in a big match?
JAPAN (second in Group F; 1-2-0)
Title odds, per Opta: 1.0%
Projected R32 opponent: Brazil, June 29
Why they will win it all: A sturdy base. In three group stage matches, Japan committed just 11 total high turnovers. Only Spain and Netherlands have averaged fewer. They've averaged 7.4 passes per possession (14th in the competition), and they're averaging the second-fewest total possessions per match (67.0).
Even without key injured players such as Brighton's Kaoru Mitoma, Monaco's Takumi Minamino and Liverpool's Wataru Endo, they have been playing with complete control, giving opponents almost no good transition opportunities and allowing almost no high-quality shots. They're looking as good as I expected them to without that star trio. And they're getting scoring punch from Ayase Ueda (two goals, one assist) and Daichi Kamada (three goals).
Why they won't: Man, that's a lot of firepower to lose. Ueda enjoyed a breakout season with Feyenoord, and Japan still have veterans such as Celtic's Daizen Maeda and Reims' Keito Nakamura to go with the excellent midfield and defense. But if they advance deep into this tournament, the absence of their most high-level attacking talent really might begin to show.
MEXICO (first in Group A; 3-0-0)
Title odds, per Opta: 1.8%
R32 opponent: Ecuador in Mexico City, Tuesday
Why they will win it all: Home magic. With their first-place finish in Group A, Mexico's first two knockout-round matches would both be at the legendary Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. And if things go according to plan in Group L, that second match would be against England, likely the best team in their entire quarter of the draw, in the country's biggest World Cup match in ages.
Azteca was maybe their best weapon against South Africa in the opener, and while Mexico's play itself hasn't been amazing -- from an xG (and "goalkeeper errors") perspective, they were fortunate to beat South Korea -- they've defended well, and the early points have given them a chance to play their way into form.
Why they won't: An underwhelming attack. Mexico have indeed neutralized opponents well, allowing no goals and shots worth a total of just 1.5 xG through three matches. But they also created few strong chances against an overwhelmed, nine-man South Africa in the first match and created far less against South Korea.
In three matches, they've attempted five shots worth 0.2 xG or more. That doesn't say good things about their scoring capabilities when the level of competition increases.
MOROCCO (second in Group C; 2-1-0)
Title odds, per Opta: 1.6%
Projected R32 opponent: Netherlands in Monterrey, Monday
Why they will win it all: They play like a team that can. Morocco made the 2022 World Cup semis with what amounted to an enhanced defend-and-counter approach: They played without the ball but still managed to create shot quality advantages, even against Portugal in the knockout rounds. About 3½ years later, they're still providing serious threats on the counter, but they also are playing with the ball more. They had 49% possession in their opening draw with Brazil; and despite leading almost the entire match, they were at 59% against Scotland and 69% against Haiti.
It's another card they can play, and they have the talent to pull it off. And if they're playing better and more sophisticated ball than when they made the semis, who's to say they can't win another match or two this time?
Why they won't: Do they have the bench? Through the first 60 minutes of each match thus far, Morocco have generated a plus-2.4 xG differential; they were superior in this regard against both Brazil and Scotland. But over the final 30 minutes, as substitutions began to play a role, they had to hold on for dear life, giving up better opportunities than they created both times. That's a warning sign considering the number of knockout matches you'll have to win to take the title.
NETHERLANDS (first in Group F; 2-1-0)
Title odds, per Opta: 5.1%
Projected R32 opponent: Morocco in Monterrey, Monday
Why they will win it all: Did you even watch the Sweden match? It was one of the most resounding statements of the tournament thus far. Granted, Sweden is difficult to figure out: They underachieved dramatically in qualification and snuck in through the back door of the playoffs thanks to previous Nations League success; then they looked formidable in their first World Cup match. Yet Sweden got crushed 5-1 by a Dutch team that had every answer. Cody Gakpo and new starter Brian Brobbey combined for four goals and an assist. Virgil van Dijk and the back line erased Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres. And after establishing an early lead, the Dutch counterattacked with vigor.
If you can play possession ball or counter, have major-club talent at every level of the pitch and don't actually ever lose World Cup matches, what exactly are you lacking?
Why they won't: It's hard to trust Ronald Koeman. The Dutch manager has always had a more regressive, conservative streak, and it might have cost his team a couple of points against Japan when he made defensive substitutions, his team gave up control of the pitch and it then conceded a late tying goal. England's aggression against Croatia was a reminder that staying on the front foot might be the way to go when you have superior personnel, but Koeman isn't really the guy to do that.
NORWAY (second in Group I; 2-0-1)
Title odds, per Opta: 3.0%
R32 opponent: Ivory Coast, June 30
Why they will win it all: The big lad. Erling Haaland had to wait until he was 25 to play in a World Cup. He's made up for lost time. He's averaging basically one goal per half, and Norway outscored Iraq and Senegal by a combined 7-3 to comfortably advance to the knockout rounds with a match to go. (Head coach Ståle Solbakken then elected to sit Haaland and others against France.) Haaland created one of those goals out of whole cloth, too:
Erling Haaland pounced on the mistake to make it 2-1 for Norway 🇳🇴 pic.twitter.com/lEL7pOOVng
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) June 16, 2026
This is a golden generation of sorts for Norway, with not only Manchester City's Haaland (25) in the team, but also Arsenal's Martin Odegaard (27), Borussia Dortmund's Julian Ryerson (28), Brentford's Kristoffer Ajer (28), Bologna's Torbjorn Heggem (27) and Fulham's Sander Berge (28). All of them are reaching their athletic primes at the same time and playing a huge role in this World Cup, but they'll only really go as far as Haaland takes them.
Why they won't: Defensive fragility. Even with players like Ajer and Heggem, the Norway defense has been the weak point for a while, and even before playing France, Norway ranked 22nd in xG allowed per shot and 35th in shots allowed per possession. They've actually allowed more shot attempts than they've taken, and they very much struggled to see out the win over Senegal, allowing a number of high-quality shot attempts (and a goal) after going up 3-1.
If Haaland's magic even briefly dries up, Norway could be in trouble.
PARAGUAY (third in Group D; 1-2-0)
Title odds, per Opta: 0.2%
R32 opponent: Germany, June 29
Why they will win it all: No one knows themselves better. Paraguay basically try to do two things on the pitch: Play fast and win duels. It's their entire identity, and they're married to it. They're averaging 121 duel attempts per game, easily the highest average (only three other teams average above 110), and while they only win 49.3% of them, it's like a high-volume 3-point shooter -- you don't have to make a ridiculous percentage if you're able to try so many in the first place.
Air or ground? Doesn't matter. They try 37.7 aerial duels per game (fourth most), and they've won 42.3 ground duels per game (third). They're going to test you over and over, and they play faster than everyone else, too: Their 95.0 possessions per game are the most in the competition; only five other teams have averaged above 85. You have to play their game to beat them. That can make them a threat, especially in the early rounds.
Why they won't: No goal threat whatsoever. Congratulations to them for advancing despite scoring only two goals, but it was actually worse than that: They attempted shots worth a total of 1.11 xG. In three games! Twenty-four players in this tournament have generated more shot value than the entire Paraguay team through three matches, and there are still a couple more group stage matchdays to go! We'll end up with more than 24.
No team in the knockout rounds has a less threatening attack.
PORTUGAL (second in Group K; 1-2-0)
Title odds, per Opta: 4.7%
R32 opponent: Croatia in Toronto, Thursday
Why they will win it all: All the midfield talent in the world. Few teams can hypnotize you with passing like Portugal, which is what you'd expect from a team featuring Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Nuno Mendes, Pedro Neto and João Neves. After the group stage, they're first in the competition in passes per possession (9.2) and pass completion rate (91.3%), and second in progressive passes per game (83.0). Vitinha alone had completed more progressive passes through two matches (35) than Qatar (16), Cape Verde (24) or Paraguay (26)!
And while you have to be able to do more than simply pass the ball around, Portugal's recent Nations League title, featuring wins over Spain and Germany, were a reminder that they can do just that at times.
Why they won't: A lack of muscle. Here's where I could point out that manager Roberto Martinez is fully committed to an inconsistent 41-year-old center-forward whose struggles helped to get Portugal eliminated four years ago; Martinez will substitute anyone but Cristiano Ronaldo when his team is struggling, and it's a managerial blind spot that could prove very costly. But this is pretty well-covered territory, so I'll just point this out instead: I covered their match against Congo DR, and it was jarring that not a single Portuguese player was stronger than his Congolese counterpart.
This is not a team that will win with duels, physicality and aerial prowess. That is not a card they have to play.
SENEGAL (third in Group I; 1-0-2)
Title odds, per Opta: 0.5%
R32 opponent: Belgium in Seattle, Wednesday
Why they will win it all: Goals. Sure, a majority of African teams advanced because of defense, but Senegal was a happy exception. They scored the second-most goals (eight) and attempted the eighth-most shots (16.7) of anyone in the group stage. A lot of that damage was done against Iraq in a match in which they knew they needed to score, but they scored one against France and two against Norway, too.
Their attacking talent -- Crystal Palace's Ismaila Sarr, Chelsea's Nicolas Jackson, PSG's Ibrahim Mbaye, the legendary Sadio Mane -- is undeniable. Actually, their overall talent is undeniable: 20 of 26 players were on Big Five rosters last season.
Why they won't: Defensive breakdowns. Senegal have major-club talent in the back, too, but that hasn't stopped them from giving up far too many high-quality opportunities. They rank 45th in xG allowed per shot, and they're keeping at least two defenders between ball and goal on only 61.9% of opponents' shots (47th). They are an extremely wide-open team, and while that's great from an entertainment standpoint, it probably isn't great for a long run in this tournament.
SOUTH AFRICA (second in Group A; 2-1-0)
Title odds, per Opta: 0.1%
R32 opponent: Canada, Sunday
Why they will win it all: They keep getting better. The World Cup is a marathon and not a sprint; that's great for South Africa because the Bafana Bafana face-planted out of the gate. They looked overwhelmed by the Azteca Stadium -- and by the moment in general -- and it seemed they were lucky to lose only 2-0.
When they allowed an early goal against the Czech Republic in their second match, it seemed as if this team were due an early exit. But since Michal Sadílek's goal gave the Czechs the lead, South Africa have played 173 minutes; they outscored the Czechs and South Korea 2-0, generating a solid xG advantage of 0.99.
They obviously aren't generating a ton in attack, but the center back duo of 20-year-old Chicago Fire star Mbekezeli Mbokazi and veteran Ime Okon has been wonderfully sturdy. South Africa have found their poise and their quality at just the right time.
Why they won't: Goals. Scoring was always likely to be their fatal flaw, and thus far they're generating little xG (0.9 per match) and failing to convert what they have. Thapelo Maseko's lovely strike against South Korea allowed them to advance for the first time, and Canada is a decent first knockout round matchup for them, but we know what will eventually knock them out.
SPAIN (first in Group H; 2-1-0)
Title odds, per Opta: 12.8%
R32 opponent: Austria in Los Angeles, Thursday
Why they will win it all: They're Spain. It probably isn't hard to explain why the team that won the last Euros and has Lamine Yamal, Pedri and a robust set of veterans can win the World Cup. And in case their shocking 0-0 draw with Cape Verde cast any doubts, they alleviated those concerns by outscoring their next two opponents 5-0. They can dominate the ball, and they can likely still beat you with the speed of Yamal and Nico Williams.
There's no grave weakness here. They're still Spain.
Why they won't: Do they still have the Euro recipe? We should probably acknowledge that some of the key players from that Euro 2024 run aren't in the same form. Williams' presence was enormous in that run, but he has been banged up and relatively ineffective; he has just six goals and five assists in all competitions for club and country in the past year. Meanwhile, Rodri, whose brilliant play resulted in his Ballon d'Or win just weeks after the Euros, is still good, but he hasn't been the same since tearing an ACL in September 2024.
It might be a little easier for them to fall into stolid possession play without a full-strength Williams or get hit on a counter without a full-strength Rodri. And it might only take one poor sequence to fall short in a five-round knockout competition.
SWEDEN (third in Group F; 1-1-1)
Title odds, per Opta: 0.3%
R32 opponent: France in New York/New Jersey, Tuesday
Why they will win it all: They're scary on the counter. Per StatsPerform, a direct attack is a sequence starting in your defensive half and producing a shot within 20 seconds. Sweden has produced eight of them, the fifth-best average in the tournament. They've scored twice from high turnovers, also the fifth-best average.
They have two of the best direct-attack strikers in the game in Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres, guys who just need a single opening to do damage and who have combined for two goals and five of Sweden's six assists in this tournament. They also have Anthony Elanga, another Premier League talent who's scored off of assists from both players. This team didn't like the world aflame after their 5-1 romp over Tunisia, but that front line is fast and incredibly dangerous.
Why they won't: They're incredibly generous. Their attack has to be dangerous because they make everyone else's attack equally potent. Through three matches, opponents have averaged 0.21 xG per shot, a ridiculously high average that is lower than only what Panama have allowed. They've attempted two shots worth more than 0.2 xG, and they've allowed five such shots, and it's really hard to win five knockout matches when opponents are earning all the good shots.
SWITZERLAND (first in Group B; 2-1-0)
Title odds, per Opta: 2.2%
R32 opponent: Algeria in Vancouver, Thursday
Why they will win it all: Trust xG. Five teams have generated an xG differential of plus-3.8 or higher thus far. Favorites Spain, England and Germany are three, and a Canada team that overwhelmed a nine-man Qatar is the fourth.
The fifth? Switzerland. They manhandled Bosnia and Herzegovina far worse than Canada did, and only a run of poor finishing (they attempted shots worth 3.2 xG but scored only once) kept Switzerland from walloping (11-man) Qatar. They lost the xG battle to Canada, but only because of a late run of chances as they were seeing out a 2-1 win.
They generated the fourth-most xG through two matches and allowed the third-lowest. Weak opponents? Absolutely, but how many other teams have struggled against supposedly weak competition in this tournament?
The Swiss have major-club talent at every level. They have a lovely mix of veterans (Granit Xhaka) and youngsters (20-year-old Johan Manzambi) playing well. And they're creating far better chances than they're allowing. That's a pretty good recipe.
Why they won't: Drama. This seemingly goes for just about any nation, but the negative headlines explode every time anything doesn't go well with this team. Xhaka has called out some of his younger teammates at times. And when they couldn't knock in a second goal against Qatar, their body language suggested they knew they were going to give up a late equalizer. And then they did. It got awfully dicey late against Canada, too.
I'm more of a stats guy than a body language guy, but this sport requires both, and it's hard to trust this team when it comes to the latter.
UNITED STATES (first in Group D; 2-0-1)
Title odds, per Opta: 2.5%
Projected R32 opponent: Bosnia & Herzegovina in San Francisco, Wednesday
Why they will win it all: Everything's coming up Poch. After four straight years of injuries to major stars, the Americans are as healthy as they've ever been (even acknowledging Christian Pulisic's calf issues). They benefited from own goals early in two straight matches. Folarin Balogun is finishing well and making things happen, and Alex Freeman has shifted into a completely new gear.
And since Türkiye collapsed, Mauricio Pochettino was able to rest most of his stars and reset all yellow cards during the final group match. The U.S. have maybe the single easiest potential path to the quarterfinals. Virtually everything that both Pochettino and U.S. fans wanted to happen has happened, and it's creating some team-of-destiny vibes. The U.S. team has outscored two decent opponents by a combined 6-1 and nearly beat Türkiye with mostly backups, and it sure looks like it will be full strength when the knockout rounds start.
You can't ask for much more than that.
Why they won't: Defensive vulnerabilities. Early leads and outstanding first-half performances have created favorable circumstances, but it's hard to forget that when the Americans played a run of four straight opponents in the top 15 of the FIFA rankings -- Belgium, Portugal, Senegal and Germany -- they allowed 11 combined goals. Granted, star defender Chris Richards was hurt during that stretch, but even with Richards, the U.S. suffered a total lapse in concentration and gave up a goal to Paraguay in the first World Cup match, and they allowed three goals to Türkiye.
This team is at its best when its forwards and midfielders are swarming and playing aggressively, and that style of play is naturally risky. Combining that with some poor defending on set pieces and restarts is not a recipe for success. If or when this team gets knocked out, we probably know how it will go down.