Prime-time Parlay: FPI predictions for the biggest games of NFL Week 11

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will have an unforeseen true road game against the Rams on Monday night. David Eulitt/Getty Images

The move of the Rams-Chiefs matchup from Mexico City has been a mess on a number of fronts, but you might not mind the move so much if you're a fan of Prime-time Parlay. A line that was Rams -1 has moved to Rams -3.5, so if you were inclined to pick L.A., you can now do so with more confidence. Will the change of venues have an impact?

Once again, Prime-time Parlay is all about the best games: Thursday, Sunday and Monday's prime-time games and the top 1 p.m. ET and 4 p.m. ET Sunday matchups. Straight-up picks, but you gotta hit all five. Then we calculate how much you'd earn for the parlay, using Westgate's money lines.

Via ESPN's Football Power Index, Prime-time Parlay tells you the analytics-based predictions for the meetings of greatest national import, offering the smart picks for the games you'll be watching. (All NFL point spreads and money lines can be found here).

Total payout for Week 11 Prime-time Parlay (selecting all FPI-projected winners in five games): $765.81 on $100 wager

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, FOX/NFL Network)

Money line: Seahawks -145
FPI projection: Seahawks win by 3.6 points

FPI judges these teams to be fairly equal but tips the balance in favor of the Seahawks because they're at home. Seattle ranks 15th in overall efficiency, while Green Bay is 18th. The Packers get a little more credit than the Seahawks going forward -- in part because of Aaron Rodgers -- but Seattle is the FPI pick here. -- Seth Walder

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (1:00 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Money line: Falcons -180
FPI projection: Falcons win by 3.2 points

These teams get to the same place -- a little above average -- in such different ways. The Cowboys (14th in offense, 13th in defense, ninth in special teams) are slightly above average in all three phases. The Falcons have a good offense (sixth), above-average special teams (third), and a terrible defense (30th). Altogether, they're extremely similar in rating, but the Falcons get the edge here at home. -- Seth Walder

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX

Money line: Rams -425
FPI projection: Saints win by 8.7 points

The Saints' offense is ridiculous. FPI judges Drew Brees & Co. as the No. 1 offense in the NFL, more than 11 points better than average. The Eagles are better than average in defense (ninth) but not enough to mitigate that high-octane New Orleans attack. -- Seth Walder

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

Money line: Bears -140
FPI projection: Bears win by 2.6 points

Mitchell Trubisky has proven all season that he's better than initially thought, and a still-underrated part of his game comes from him running the football. Trubisky has the highest rush expected points added (EPA) among NFL quarterbacks, and it's not particularly close. The EPA informs his QBR, which is a factor in FPI. -- Seth Walder

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN)

Money line: Rams -180
FPI projection: Rams win by 4.6 points

The Rams are still the best team in football. They don't have as good of an offense (third) as the Saints (first) and Chiefs (second), but their defense is average, which is better than both New Orleans and Kansas City can claim. The Rams can thank Aaron Donald for that. -- Seth Walder

Final Parlay: Seahawks, Falcons, Saints, Bears, Rams

For more from ESPN Analytics, visit the ESPN Analytics Index.