Late drama at the Kassam Stadium cost us our banker bet on Tuesday night as Newcastle were taken to extra-time before seeing off plucky Oxford United. Looking ahead, the Premier League's first winter break comes into play this weekend, but the staggered nature of the break means there are still four top-flight matches on over the weekend, including Manchester City against West Ham.
Running total: -£54.92
Pep Guardiola has come in for some stinging recent criticism with Manchester City currently 22 points behind Liverpool in the title race. However, it's not that his team have been playing poorly. They dominated against Tottenham last weekend despite losing 2-0, enjoying 67% possession and winning the overall shot count 19-3. We feel they justify heavy favouritism against a West Ham side who are seeking a first win in six matches after dropping into the bottom three.
Pep has won all eight meetings with West Ham as a manager, and City have also won their last seven Premier League games against the east London outfit, scoring 23 times and conceding just three. The big question here is whether the Hammers can bag a consolation? Both teams have scored in seven of City's 12 home games so far in the league, so taking the 5/4 on offer with bet365 that Manchester City win a match where both teams find the net could be the way to go.
The First Goal Flutter
Not many professionals make the journey from the Camp Nou to Vicarage Road but Watford fans are thankful that Gerard Deulofeu has done just that. The Spanish star has the pace and skill to give Brighton nightmares this weekend and we fancy him to add to the four goals he has scored already this season.
Selection: £2 on Deulofeu to score first at 8/1 with bet365.
The Tasty Treble
In-form Watford could be worth a play at 13/5 when they travel to Brighton. The Seagulls have only managed two wins in 10 meetings against the Hornets, and Brighton have won just one of their last seven home games. Nigel Pearson knows a win could take his side out of the bottom three and at this stage of the season that would be a huge psychological boost.
Elsewhere we like both teams to score at 21/20 when Everton host Crystal Palace in Saturday's early kick-off. The Toffees were stunned by two injury-time goals as they blew a 2-0 lead against Newcastle in their last league outing at Goodison, and with Wilfried Zaha and Jordan Ayew involved Palace will always be dangerous going forward.
Finally add in 'Over 1.5' goals at 2/5 when Sheffield United host Bournemouth. The Blades are enjoying a fantasy season but they have looked far from invincible at Bramall Lane and we fancy goals when Eddie Howe's side come to town. The treble with bet365 is paying over 9/1 and is not without hope.
Selection: £2 on the treble at 9.33/1 with bet365.
The Wildcard Tip
Dropping down to the Championship and title favourites Leeds United have looked all over the shop in recent weeks. The Yorkshire giants have suffered three defeats in their last four so it's puzzling to see in-form Forest, who have scored in each of their last nine league games, chalked up at 5/2 at home.