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Fantasy football insights with Watson for Week 11

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Bell expects Brissett to start on Sunday (1:08)

Stephania Bell expects Jacoby Brissett to start on Sunday and compliments his toughness. (1:08)

For those who are looking for a tool to concentrate various web opinions into one location to help make roster moves in fantasy football, IBM offers Watson's Insights as an unsupervised, quantitative supplement to the more in-depth, personalized analysis that you would normally expect from an ESPN analyst.

IBM Insights uses Watson AI to analyze thousands of fantasy articles, blogs, websites and podcasts and provide support data to assist with fantasy football decisions. Watson outputs an estimated scoring range for each player, as well as projecting the chances that a player will exceed the upside estimate (e.g. "boom") or fall short of the low-end estimate (e.g. "bust") on any given week.

The following article points out a few notable insights from Watson for Week 11 of the 2019 NFL season, as of early Friday afternoon.

Quarterback decisions

While quarterbacks can provide some of the best fantasy value in a given week, it can be difficult to decide beforehand which one to start. That is especially true this season, when the injury and performance turnover at the position has been higher than I can ever remember and byes are still in effect. IBM Insights provides information that can help make these decisions easier.

The following analysis was performed on all quarterbacks who are expected to play in Week 11 (and did not already play on Thursday).

Projections higher than rank

Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders vs. Cincinnati Bengals

  • Weekly rank 152, 19th among QBs

  • High projection: 23.5 fantasy points

  • Low projection: 9.3 fantasy points

  • Boom chance: 0.25

  • Bust chance: 0.19

Carr has played well of late, averaging 271.3 passing yards per game with 2.0 touchdowns and only 0.3 interceptions during his four games since the bye week. This week he gets a bonanza opportunity against a Bengals secondary that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season.

Watson's Insight: Insights has Carr as a potential QB1 this week as a relatively hot player facing a horrible passing defense.

Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Weekly rank 158, 21st among QBs

  • High projection: 26.4 fantasy points

  • Low projection: 10.1 fantasy points

  • Boom chance: 0.08

  • Bust chance: 0.19

Brissett is expected to return to the field this week after missing last game with an injury. He returns to face a mediocre Jaguars pass defense that has allowed the 15th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. And Brissett was playing great ball this season before the game in which he got injured, averaging 231.4 YPG, 2.3 TD and 0.5 interceptions in those six contests.

Watson's Insight: Brissett has played solid football when healthy all season, and Insights identifies him as a possible QB1 this week against a weaker-than-expected defense.

Most likely to go boom/least likely to bust

Ryan Finley, Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders

  • Weekly rank 299th, 35th among QBs

  • High projection: 21.7 fantasy points

  • Low projection: 9.6 fantasy points

  • Boom chance: 0.25

  • Bust chance: 0.14

This news is likely only useful in two-quarterback leagues, as Finley is too much of a long shot for use in anything but the most desperate of single-QB leagues. With that said, the winless Bengals have bought into Finley as an experiment to see what they need to draft next season. Finley showed signs of upside against the Ravens in his debut (when he wasn't throwing pick-6 interceptions or fumbling), and the Raiders have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season.

Watson's Insight: Finley may be a desperation play in any but the deepest of leagues, but Watson identifies him with the upside to produce QB2 numbers against a weak Raiders pass defense.

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears

  • Weekly rank 119, 15th among QBs

  • High projection: 19.7 fantasy points

  • Low projection: 9.5 fantasy points

  • Boom chance: 0.22

  • Bust chance: 0.07

Goff is coming off a down week in Pittsburgh against a tough Steelers defense, in his first game back from bye. But, in four of the six games leading into the bye, he had at least 268 passing yards and two touchdowns to indicate solid upside. He faces a tough Bears defense this week, but Watson gives him more than three times as much likelihood to have a big game as to have a poor one.

Watson's Insight: Goff has had an up-and-down season, which is the definition of boom or bust, and Watson identifies him as much more likely to boom for fantasy starter numbers as to bust into ignominy this week.

Insights provided by IBM Watson in partnership with ESPN