The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy perspective, with at least one mention of each of the league's 32 teams. Though efficiency will be discussed plenty, the column will lean heavily on usage data, as volume is king (by far) in fantasy football. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for the upcoming week and beyond. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
Throughout the below team-by-team rundowns, I'll be referencing "OFP" and "OTD." OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy points. Imagine a league in which players are created equal. OFP is a statistic that weighs every pass/carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's opportunity to score fantasy points, or his "expected" fantasy point total. For example, if a player has an OFP of 14.5, it means that a league average player who saw the same workload in the same location on the field would have scored 14.5 fantasy points. FORP is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total and his OFP. OTD works the same way, except instead of fantasy points, it's touchdowns. Volume is king in fantasy football, so this is not information you want to overlook.
That said, here is the post-Week 12 OFP Leaderboard:
Next, here are the players who exceeded their OFP by the largest margin this past week and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy production moving forward, assuming they see a similar workload:
And these are the players who fell short of their OFP by the largest margin last week, and thus you shouldn't be too quick to overreact to their performance when making lineup, trade or waiver decisions:
Following a relatively quiet start to the season and some boom/bust performances over the past month or so, Kyler Murray is currently the No. 5 scoring fantasy quarterback. Murray has finished five of his past seven outings as a top-seven fantasy quarterback, though he did mix in a pair of finishes outside the top 20. A boost in scoring has been the key to the rookie's step forward. Arizona's offense totaled eight touchdowns during its first five games (1.6 per game), but 16 during its past six outings (2.7 per game). The latter included at least three scores in five of the six games. Murray is locked in as QB1 moving forward, with his rushing production (67-418-3) supplying him a high floor.
The Falcons took a step forward defensively during their Week 9 bye, but the wheels seem to have fallen off a bit offensively. Matt Ryan opened the 2019 season with 300-plus yards in six-consecutive games, adding at least two touchdowns in five of those games. Ryan has reached 300 yards once in four games since, totaling three touchdowns and three interceptions during the span. That includes a Week 12 performance in which he failed to throw a single touchdown against a Buccaneers defense that entered the game having allowed 25 in 10 games. The Atlanta offense hasn't scored more than two touchdowns in a game since Week 6. Ryan should be on benches against the Saints in Week 13.
Marquise Brown did it again. Despite failing to clear 50 receiving yards for the sixth time in seven games, the speedy rookie found the end zone on two of his five receptions against the Rams on Monday night. Brown has now found the end zone six times in nine games, though he's been very boom/bust with a pair of two-score games and four outings with fewer than eight fantasy points. Brown is averaging a weak 4.25 targets per game since returning from injury in Week 9, though his 62% snap share on Monday was his highest since Week 4. Brown will always be a threat for a long touchdown in Baltimore's high-scoring offense, but he remains a risky flex dart throw in 12-team leagues.
Devin Singletary was on the field for 70% of Buffalo's offensive snaps on Sunday. The rookie racked up a career-high 106 yards on 21 carries and added 8 yards on a pair of targets, which helped him to his fourth top-20 fantasy week of the season. Game script helped Frank Gore to 15 carries, though the veteran back was limited to only 22 snaps (30% share). Singletary has out-snapped Gore in five consecutive games and enjoys a 220-to-98 edge in the category during the span. Singletary hasn't scored during his past three games, but he does have at least 79 scrimmage yards in three of his past four outings. Singletary's clear lead back status, role as the primary receiving back and strong efficiency (5.8 YPC) are enough to qualify him as a solid flex during Buffalo's upcoming tough stretch.
DJ Moore entered Week 12 with three career touchdowns on 117 touches (5.2 OTD). Despite that, Moore also entered the week in the midst of a breakout second season and with the 17th-most fantasy points among wide receivers. The Maryland product finally put it all together against New Orleans with a 6-126-2 receiving line on nine targets. Moore has now managed 95-plus yards in four consecutive games and has been targeted at least eight times in nine of 11 games this season. Moore's usage suggests he won't be a consistent contributor in the touchdown department, but his massive target share (26%) can continue to support fringe WR1 numbers.
Since putting up 147 yards and one touchdown on 31 touches back in Week 8, David Montgomery has failed to clear 60 yards in a single game and has a total of two touchdowns (both came in Week 9) during the four-game span. Montgomery has struggled with efficiency, averaging 3.5 yards per carry or worse during nine of his 11 games. In fact, the rookie's 3.33 YPC is fourth-worst and his 55% catch rate second-worst among running backs. On the plus side, Montgomery has managed at least 13 carries in five consecutive games and has handled at least three targets in five of his past six outings. That's just enough to keep him in the flex discussion moving forward.
Ryan Finley has made three NFL starts and the rookie has failed to clear 192 yards or one touchdown in any of them. Finley is averaging 158.0 passing yards per game and has scored two touchdowns to go along with a pair of interceptions. Add that to his atrocious 47% completion percentage and it's no surprise the rookie was benched. Andy Dalton is back and, though he wasn't particularly good earlier this season, he did average 281.5 passing yards per game. Tyler Boyd should benefit most from Dalton's promotion, as the oft-targeted slot receiver was 16th in fantasy points prior to Dalton's benching, but sits 28th in three games since. Boyd and Joe Mixon are the only Bengals who should be considered for lineups, at least until A.J. Green returns.
Jarvis Landry posted a 10-148-2 receiving line on 13 targets in a "Revenge Game" against the Dolphins on Sunday. Sure, Landry's best game of the season came with added motivation, but high-end production has become a theme for the slot receiver. Landry has now scored in four consecutive games and has handled 10-plus targets in four of his past five outings. Landry has reached 62 receiving yards in seven of his 12 games and now sits 13th among wide receivers in fantasy points. Cleveland will play what is arguably the league's easiest remaining schedule, which sets up Landry (and Odell Beckham Jr.) for plenty of big games the rest of the way. Landry should obviously be locked into lineups.
After catching at least one pass during his first 21 games with the Cowboys, Amari Cooper was held off the stat sheet in New England on Sunday. Cooper was targeted only twice after seeing at least five targets in all of the aforementioned games aside from Week 6, when he left hurt after three snaps. Cooper has now produced back-to-back duds, though he was limited by injury to 56% of the snaps and was shadowed by Darius Slay in Week 11 (38 yards on eight targets) and was shut down by Stephon Gilmore and the Patriots' No. 1 defense against wide receivers this past week. Cooper played 80% of the snaps Sunday, which obviously alleviates concerns about his health moving forward. That said, Cooper has another tough matchup with shadow coverage against Tre'Davious White in Week 13. He'll also have his hands full with Chicago in Week 14 and Jalen Ramsey in Week 15, though the Eagles present a better matchup during championship time in Week 16. Cooper's schedule is a red flag, but the combination of his heavy workload (22% target share) and Dallas' high-scoring offense (3.0 touchdowns per game) is enough to keep him in the weekly top-20 mix.
Courtland Sutton had a rare dud Sunday, struggling to one catch for 27 yards on eight targets. Of course, the underwhelming performance was hardly unexpected in a brutal matchup against the Bills' terrific pass defense and specifically Tre'Davious White. Prior to the dud, Sutton had produced at least 72 yards or a touchdown in eight consecutive games and in nine of 10 games on the season. Sutton technically has a tough matchup against Casey Hayward Jr. in Week 13, though he did catch a 70-yard touchdown in the same situation back in Week 5. Sutton remains a fine WR2 during an impressive breakout season.
Week 12 supplied us with further evidence that Bo Scarbrough is the clear lead back in Detroit. The second-year back played 49% of the snaps and racked up 98 yards on 18 carries. Ty Johnson (27% snap share) and J.D. McKissic (15%) were also involved, but they combined for 41 yards on nine touches. Scarbrough has carried the ball 32 times during his two games with Detroit, though he has zero catches on one target during the span. Reminiscent of Gus Edwards down the stretch last season, Scarbrough's heavy rushing volume and the occasional touchdown keeps him in the flex discussion (especially in non-PPR leagues), but a near non-existent receiving role severely limits his fantasy upside.
Geronimo Allison has worked as Green Bay's No. 2 wide receiver since Davante Adams returned in Week 9, but that simply hasn't led to much production. Allison trails Adams by only 23 snaps and 22 pass routes, but he has seen only nine targets during the span. Allison hasn't cleared four targets, three receptions or 21 yards in a game since Week 7, nor has he found the end zone since Week 4. Aaron Jones and Adams are the only Packers who should be locked into lineups every week.
Will Fuller V posted a 7-140-0 receiving line while handling 11 targets against the Colts in Week 12. Excluding a Week 7 game in which he went down with an injury after three snaps, Fuller has now reached double digit targets in three consecutive games. Fuller sits eighth at wide receiver in average depth of target (14.8) after finishing top four in the category each of his first two NFL seasons. Fuller has been boom/bust as usual this season, failing to clear 51 yards in four full games but also posting a pair of 20-plus point performances. Fuller's heavy recent usage in Houston's high-scoring offense makes him a viable WR2 moving forward.
With Marlon Mack sidelined in Week 12, Jonathan Williams was the Colts' clear feature back. The journeyman was on the field for 66% of the snaps and racked up 29 touches. Williams was held to 121 yards but found the end zone, which helped him to a strong fantasy night. Nyheim Hines played 34% of the snaps and produced 61 yards on 11 touches. Jordan Wilkins was limited to one offensive snap (a Jacoby Brissett sack) and committed a special team's penalty, which seemingly led to a benching. It appears Williams has slotted into the Mack role, so if the Colts' lead back remains out, Williams will be a fringe RB2. That may seem low considering his Week 12 workload, but remember that the superior Mack was held to one top 12 fantasy week through Week 11 and that came way back in Week 1.
The Jaguars got crushed by Tennessee on Sunday, but hidden in the blowout was some serious touchdown regression to the mean for Leonard Fournette. Entering Week 12 as the league's unluckiest running back in the touchdown department, Fournette had registered only one score despite 230 touches and a 5.4 OTD. Against the Titans, Fournette racked up 159 yards and two touchdowns on 33 touches. The huge day vaults him to fifth among running backs in fantasy points for the season. He's yet to post a weekly finish worse than 27th and has six top-12 weekly finishes. Note that, even after the big game, Fournette remains the league's unluckiest back in the scoring department with three touchdowns and a 7.1 OTD. Nonetheless, Fournette is averaging a massive 18.7 carries and 6.1 targets per game and is locked in as a high-end RB1.
After accounting for 52 touchdowns in 16 regular-season games during his MVP 2018 season, Patrick Mahomes has scored 19 touchdowns in nine games (or 18 in eight full games) this season. Mahomes' full-game pace puts him in line for 30.25 total touchdowns in 14 games, assuming he plays the Chiefs' final five games in full. Mahomes is still playing at a very high level, but he is yet another example of an elite player being unable to sustain Hall of Fame level numbers over a large sample. Mahomes has finished four weeks as a top-five fantasy quarterback but also finished 11th or lower during his other four outings. Despite the dip in production and inconsistent fantasy output, Mahomes remains a weekly must start, though keep in mind the Chiefs' offense is set for a brutal schedule during Weeks 14-17 (at NE, vs. DEN, at CHI, vs. LAC).
Keenan Allen went through a frustrating slump through the middle of the fantasy regular season, but he appears to be back on track as the playoffs near. Allen opened 2019 with weekly finishes of seventh, 16th and second before finishing six consecutive weeks outside the top 30. He entered the Chargers' bye off finishes of 16th and ninth during Weeks 10-11. Fantasy's No. 12 wideout has handled 10 or more targets in seven of 11 games this season, including four of his past five. Allen's 7.4 yards per target is his worst since 2014, but averaging 9.8 targets per game will be more than enough to keep him in the weekly WR1 discussion.
What has happened to Brandin Cooks? The well-traveled deep threat entered 2019 having finished four-consecutive seasons as a top-15 fantasy receiver and sat 26th at the position in fantasy points through Week 4 this season. Since that point, and excluding a Week 8 game that he left injured after three snaps, Cooks has totaled 18 targets, 10 receptions, 138 yards and zero touchdowns in four games. That works out to 7.0 fantasy points per game. Cooks remains a full-time player, but the Rams' offense has fallen below average in touchdowns per game and Cooks' target share has plummeted from 23% in 2018 to 16% this season. Cooks has fallen to borderline flex territory, though he has a shot at a bounceback game with Arizona's struggling pass defense on tap in Week 13.
It took a few weeks longer than it should have, but the Dolphins finally changed up the backfield dynamic in Week 12. Kalen Ballage struggled as the feature back early, but played a reduced role later in the game and ended up on the field for 39% of the snaps. That led to more work for Patrick Laird (35% snap share) and Myles Gaskin (26%). The trio combined for 43 yards on 14 carries and 20 yards on three targets, which tells you what you need to know about this backfield. None need to be rostered and certainly none of them should be in lineups against a good Eagles run defense in Week 13.
Adam Thielen has played a grand total of 15 snaps due to injury during Minnesota's past five games. During that span, Kyle Rudolph has posted a 20-179-5 receiving line on 24 targets and is fantasy's No. 2 scoring tight end. Though the fantasy production has been good, the low target and yardage numbers, as well as the heavy reliance on touchdowns should be alarming. That's especially the case with Thielen and his 27% target share due back after the team's Week 12 bye. Rudolph posted a 9-72-0 line on 11 targets during the six games Thielen played in full. Rudolph will get you the occasional score, but he's best viewed as a TE2 moving forward.
Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett were sidelined Sunday, which opened the door for rookies N'Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers to both set career-high marks in playing time. Harry played 80% of the snaps, was targeted four times and scored on his only catch. Meyers played 77% of the snaps and posted a 4-74-0 line on nine targets. Julian Edelman is the only Patriots wide receiver who should be locked into lineups right now, and Sanu will be on the WR3 radar once healthy. That said, Harry's first-round pedigree and early-career flashes are enough to warrant consideration for a bench spot in 12-team leagues. Harry and Meyers will be shaky flex options in deeper leagues against Houston this week if Dorsett and Sanu remain out.
After scoring 31 touchdowns during his first 31 NFL games, Alvin Kamara has found the end zone only twice and has gone six consecutive games without a score this season. Despite the scoring slump, Kamara has been a strong fantasy asset. He's produced at least 89 scrimmage yards in six of nine games and has also handled at least eight targets in six of nine games. Kamara has posted touch totals of 23 and 20 during his past two games and hasn't finished lower than 11th among running backs in fantasy points during his past three outings. He obviously remains a strong weekly RB1.
Sterling Shepard returned from a concussion Sunday and was on the field for 95% of New York's snaps. That's compared to 84% for Darius Slayton, 83% for Golden Tate and 16% for Cody Latimer. Shepard was held to a 5-15-0 receiving line but was targeted a team-high nine times and added some value with a 22-yard rush. Shepard's usage provide plenty of optimism, though Evan Engram is expected back soon and it's apparent that rookie Slayton (team-high 67 yards on Sunday) will remain a big part of the offense. Consider Shepard a WR3.
Robby Anderson posted a 4-86-1 receiving line on five targets Sunday and has now found the end zone in back-to-back games. Despite the improved production, Anderson will still be very hard to recommend for fantasy lineups most weeks. Anderson has caught fewer than two passes in four of his past six games, including three of his past four. The free-agent-to-be has reached 80 receiving yards in three of his 11 games this season, but he has 43 or fewer yards in the other eight games. Anderson has some flex appeal against the Bengals and Dolphins over the next two weeks, but the Ravens, Steelers and Bills present tougher challenges during the final three weeks.
Jalen Richard posted season-high marks in targets (seven) and receptions (six) during Sunday's loss to the Jets. Despite producing his best fantasy point total of the season, Richard remains well off the fantasy radar. Josh Jacobs' backup has cleared two carries in only one game this season, and Sunday marked his first game with more than four targets or receptions. Richard caught 68 passes and was fantasy's No. 29 running back in 2018, but he is on pace for 36 catches and sits 56th in fantasy in 2019. He's not close to the fantasy radar.
With Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor both sidelined Sunday, the Eagles' wide receiver usage was as follows: Jordan Matthews (99% of 71 possible snaps, six targets), JJ Arcega-Whiteside (73%, five), Greg Ward (49%, seven) and Mack Hollins (3%, zero). Eagles tight ends combined for 22 of the team's 45 targets in the game. Jeffery and Agholor were both close to playing against Seattle and are decent bets to return in Week 13, but if they remain out, no Eagles receiver will make for a safe play. Of course, Matthews, Arcega-Whiteside and Ward would be fine flex dart-throws in deeper leagues against a struggling Miami defense.
James Conner was out again for the Steelers on Sunday, but this time it wasn't Jaylen Samuels picking up the slack. Pittsburgh turned to rookie Benny Snell (49% snap share) as its lead back, with Samuels (28%), Trey Edmunds (18%) and Kerrith Whyte (10%) also involved. Snell racked up 103 yards on 22 touches (one reception), and it appears he'll be the team's lead rusher as long as Conner is sidelined. Samuels produced 32 yards on five touches (three receptions) and is now well off the fantasy radar. The same can be said for Whyte, though he improved his dynasty stock with 43 yards on six carries. Snell should be one of your top priorities on waivers this week, as he'll be a viable flex against Cleveland if Conner remains out.
Tevin Coleman found the end zone early against Green Bay on Sunday night and has now scored seven touchdowns in nine games this season. Coleman is averaging 13.6 carries and 3.0 targets per game in eight outings since returning from injury in Week 5. The veteran back has benefited from a 49ers offense that is run-heaviest in the league (49.8% run), sits fifth in snaps (66.5 per game) and ranks second in touchdowns (3.2 per game). Coleman also happens to be the team's go-to weapon near the goal line. His 6.0 OTD easily leads the team, with George Kittle next closest at 3.3. In fact, Coleman's 5.9 OTD since returning from injury in Week 5 is sixth highest in the entire NFL, and he also ranks eighth among backs in fantasy points during the span. Coleman is in the weekly RB2 discussion.
Rashaad Penny exploded for 129 yards and one touchdown on 14 carries against the Eagles on Sunday. Penny was in the mix throughout the game, but really benefited from a pair of Chris Carson fumbles in the fourth quarter when the second-year back was on the field for 78% of the offensive snaps. In total, Carson, who registered 57 yards on 12 touches, played 30 snaps, compared to 27 for Penny. Carson has enough of a track record that he figures to remain the lead back, but Penny's strong game and pedigree (he was a first-round pick last year, after all) figures to lead to a larger role. Carson should be a viewed as a top-15 play, and Penny, who was targeted only once on Sunday, is best left on benches against Minnesota in Week 13.
A week after setting a career high with 14 targets and hauling in 10 passes, Cameron Brate returned to situational duties against Atlanta on Sunday. Brate was on the field for 32% of Tampa Bay's snaps and was held without a catch on his only target. O.J. Howard, meanwhile, played 79% of the snaps and posted a 1-10-0 receiving line on two targets. Howard has one touchdown and has cleared 47 yards in one game this season, and Brate is his backup. Neither tight end should be on fantasy rosters.
The Titans scored six offensive touchdowns Sunday and now have 19 touchdowns during Ryan Tannehill's five starts. For perspective, that 3.80 per-game average is just behind the 3.82 per game the league-leading Ravens are averaging on the season. It's also much higher than the 1.8 per game the team averaged during Marcus Mariota's six starts to open the season. Tannehill was responsible for four touchdowns Sunday and now has two or more scores in each of his five starts. The high-end production has allowed him four consecutive top-10 fantasy campaigns. Tannehill is obviously worth an add, though he's a risky start this week with Tennessee headed to Indianapolis. You can probably find 12 better options with all 32 teams back in play. Note that Tannehill attempted only 18 passes during an unsustainably efficient Week 12 blowout win.
Derrius Guice paced the Washington backfield by playing 40% of the offensive snaps on Sunday. That's compared to 35% for Adrian Peterson and 28% for Wendell Smallwood. It marks the second consecutive week that Guice has out-snapped Peterson, though Guice's production wasn't particularly good this time around (38 yards on 11 touches). Peterson was limited to 49 yards on 11 touches, and Smallwood touched the ball only once. Guice remains the preferred play here, but none of these backs are reliable fantasy starters, especially after failing to produce against a Detroit defense that entered the week having allowed the most fantasy points to the position.