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Our win probability model agreed with Doug Marrone's decision to go for it on fourth-and-goal on the 1-yard line (independent of result). Attempting a field goal instead would have lowered their chance to win by 4%. They needed to think they had at least a 40.3% chance of success to justify going for it, and league average success rate in that situation is 56.6%.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics
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