The Minnesota Vikings are still one win away from having a Super Bowl at home in U.S. Bank Stadium, but Las Vegas bookmakers already are considering the unique possibility. While the Vikings would technically be the away team as the NFC representative, how much of a home-field advantage would they have and how would it be reflected in the point spread?
Speaking with seven Vegas bookmakers, the consensus answer was an additional 1.5-2 points for Minnesota should it reach the Super Bowl, but the responses certainly were varied.
"It's hard to quantify, and it's something we've never had to talk about before, but it's an interesting conversation," John Murray, oddsmaker and manager at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook said on the Behind The Bets podcast Wednesday. "I [think] it's worth about a point."
Some thought the number could be slightly higher, due primarily to the lack of travel, comforts of sleeping at home and practicing in the team's usual facility, as opposed to the perceived benefits of the home crowd. "I'd make it 2-2.5 points," bookmaker Aaron Kessler of the Golden Nugget told ESPN. "They get the travel bump, but not the venue one."
Others disputed that the circumstance would make much of a difference in the line, but that the line would be most dependent on Minnesota's opponent.
"Not even one point," Chris Andrews, longtime oddsmaker at South Point and Vegas Stats and Information Network host, told ESPN of his perception of the increased bump. "The [opposing] team will be there for a week, so no travel issues. Tom Brady is going to be intimidated by someone booing him? I just don't see any advantage."
Jimmy Vaccaro, another oddsmaker at the South Point, agreed, noting that he'd give the Vikings a 3-point bump if they faced the Jacksonville Jaguars, but no advantage if they faced the Patriots.
"New England isn't going to be rattled by anything," Murray added. "This is Brady's eighth Super Bowl, and [the Patriots] were in the Super Bowl last year. It's not going to make any difference to them."
CG Technology put out look-ahead lines for Super Bowl LII last week, with Minnesota a 3-point underdog against New England and 4.5-point favorite against Jacksonville. Westgate also said it planned to make Minnesota a 3-point underdog against New England if that were the matchup.
The Philadelphia Eagles would be a 1.5-point underdog against the Jags, and a 7-point underdog to the Patriots, per CG Technology.
The Vikings are currently consensus 3-point road favorites in Vegas in the NFC Championship Game against the Eagles on Sunday night (6:40 p.m. ET, Fox). The Patriots are 8.5-point home favorites against Jacksonville (3:05 p.m. ET, CBS).