ESPN’s live playoff probabilities below provide a visual representation of each team’s playoff chances over the course of today's games. They combine ESPN’s live in-game win probabilities with its Football Power Index (FPI) season projections to track a team’s chances to achieve a certain feat (make playoffs, earn No. 1 seed, etc.) over time. We will be cycling through the most interesting projections throughout the day, so check back in to see how your team’s chances have changed.
AFC 1st Round Bye
It’s worth noting that the wild-card probabilities represent a team’s chance to claim one of the two wild-card spots, so if a team takes hold of its division, its chances for a wild-card spot will fall.
AFC Wild Card
How does this work? The playoff probabilities are updated as the games progress based on our live win probability estimates. Live in-game win probability measures a team’s chance to win based on the current game state (score, time remaining, field position, down-and-distance, team and opponent's strength, game site). These live game win probabilities are used by ESPN’s Football Power Index season projections, which simulate the season based on each team’s strength, upcoming schedule and NFL tiebreaking rules. The end result is a representation of a team’s chance to make the playoffs and end up with each possible seed throughout the game.